Notable
I think anon's observation that day 10 of the shutdown takes us to 12/31, which matches the 12:31 timestamp (when expressed in 12-hr am/pm format) of Q 88 which was the origin of the "10 days darkness" concept, is an astute and possibly significant indicator.
To anon's Q 88, I added here Q 282 since that post ties the "10 days darkness" concept to "shutdown", making the 12/31 12:31 coincidence interesting.
Question for lawfags:
A few weeks ago, there was a discussion about how/why the EO could be relevant for the storm. (Based on the timing language in the White House statement about the EO, it appears to have no effect on the punishment of crimes committed before Jan 1. So although everyone's excited about the Jan 1 EO effective date, we were wondering, how legally could it actually make a difference?)
The best insight anyone had was that the relevant change in the EO may not relate to the punishment of crimes per se, but the internal operating rules under which the tribunal or commission (not sure which word is correct) itself operates.
The claim was that these tribunals or commissions operate (in some way, to some extent) under the rules in effect at the time of their creation, even if the rules are later amended. And therefore the EO effective date means that tribunals or commissions created on/after Jan 1 will operate differently than previously established tribunals/commissions. And as this is an internal process issue, it's totally independent of when a crime that comes before them was committed.
I don't know if that's correct or not, the full EO text was linked but it was very dense to someone not familiar with military law. But it was an interesting suggestion. Which leads me to a specific question.
What are the legal requirements related to the relative timing of (a) arrests, and (b) the formal establishment of a tribunal or commission that hears the cases? Can arrests happen first?
The motivation is wondering if arrests could happen in December, but not be first heard by a tribunal / commission until January. (Instead of, for example, there being some right to immediate hearing that would force the govt to bring someone arrested in December before a tribunal or commission before Jan 1.)
I'm basically wondering what legal options are available for someone arrested in the first 10 days, how quickly the govt has to provide some kind of initial hearing. As this may have implications for understanding the EO's significance and what might be happening right now.
Understood, and I definitely respect baker's judgment on what to include.
About the number-craziness getting out of control – I was the author of one of the Texas Sharpshooter statistical info posts that made it into notables last night when we were trying to damp down that craziness. I'm fully on board with keeping that from getting out of hand.
My thinking here (not to argue for this topic being in notables, but fleshing out why it seems statistically interesting):
"10 days darkness" has been one of the premier mysteries. I'm not convinced that it hasn't happened, or was perhaps something of little significance that got overblown (undiscovered stars is another of those). But it is a specific clue of special interest.
We've had very few hints about what it may mean. We have the original post, the answer that it relates to "shutdown", and also "clock started 10 days" from Q 370.
If Q 370 related to 10 days darkness, and wasn't a clockfag mod overlay to the future, then it's come and gone and none of this is relevant. So noting that.
But setting aside Q 370 (which may not have related to the 10 days darkness at all) – we just have two clues, "shutdown" and the initial post.
In that context, days of interest for being a "shutdown" marker would be (when there's a govt shutdown) the start and +10 days. Which is two special bricks on a wall that's … um, not sure how many shutdowns there have been / will be, but they're not super common. So let's say a year? 2 days out of 365. And each of those would map to a clock time. Out of 1440 possible minutes, counting both AM and PM as hits, so say 720 wide - that's 2 in 720, or 1 in 360.
What assumptions went into looking at this scenario with 1:360 odds?
"10 days darkness" being of interest (premier mystery) and the idea of the post time (initial post only, as that's where Q laid out the marker) mapping to a date. There's not a lot of latitude there for finding random "clues" in a scrap pile, but there is some.
What put me over the edge on this one, is the additional coincidence that the end of the "10 days darkness" (if that's what it is) aligns with the effective date of the EO, which is another marker of special interest. And if the EO marks when things can become visible (forming tribunals, etc) then that makes a perfect darkness to light transition (Dec 31 last day of darkness, to Jan 1 first day of light.)
Numerical coincidences mean nothing in themselves, thus the Texas Sharpshooter posts last night. What we need to watch for is (1) the alignment of multiple coincidences that stack on top of each other and point in the same direction, and (2) the source pool being limited (not just finding sand on the beach), and we have both those conditions here.
Again in summary, the main points that stack:
10 days darkness Dec 21 - Dec 31 would have these special attributes:
(a) the end date 12/31 matches the post time 12:31 from the Q that told us about 10 days of darkness (1:360 odds in itself, not taking into account the size of the pool from which 1:360 like odds may be drawn)
(b) the following day Jan 1 (first day after darkness) being the effective date of the EO that everyone seems to think is a big deal (not convinced of that - I posted earlier this bread asking a question to lawfags to help clarify)
and (c) where both "10 days darkness" and "Jan 1 EO" are two of the perhaps top 25 memes that people seem to focus on, so the alignment of those two with a possible marker pointing to this specific alignment seems like a stacking of coincidences of note
Thanks!
I do think this is in the "speculative" category. If I was putting odds on this being the 10 days darkness, I'd say maybe 1 in 10? So not including this would be totally reasonable. Or waiting a bread to see how/if others weigh in.
When suggesting for notables, my thinking was the "does this timing make sense?" question is significant enough to put eyes on. Far from conclusive. But since others have suggested this is the 10 days, this bit of prior evidence seemed interesting.