Historic deal on Russian-held islands looks no nearer after Abe and Putin's fruitless 25th meeting
MOSCOW - Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s attempt to quickly settle a decadeslong territorial dispute with Russia, and thus boost his political legacy, appears unlikely to bear fruit, with no substantive progress announced after his talks Tuesday in Moscow with President Vladimir Putin.
The two leaders, who have now met 25 times, reaffirmed their determination to conclude a postwar peace treaty by settling the row over a group of Russian-held islands off Hokkaido, but they also admitted they have a tough road ahead.
Itsuro Nakamura, a professor of Russian politics at the University of Tsukuba, said Putin has no intention of handing over any of the contested territory. “I believe Mr. Putin is merely dangling the territorial issue as an enticing carrot in front of Mr. Abe” to drive a wedge in the Japan-U.S. security alliance.
Nakamura said Abe’s rush to achieve results by the end of his term of office in 2021 has put him in a disadvantageous position. Putin has no reason to move quickly to settle a dispute, which has been left unresolved so far for more than 70 years.
At the Moscow summit, Abe and Putin confirmed their earlier agreement to speed up peace treaty talks based on a 1956 joint declaration that calls for the handover of two of the four disputed isles. The four islands, known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kurils in Russia, were seized by the Soviet Union following Japan’s surrender in World War II in 1945.
Tokyo maintains that the islands were illegally occupied by Moscow, and seeks the eventual return of all four, but Russia has urged Japan to recognize that it gained sovereignty over them as a result of the war.
Abe is pursuing a broad agreement with Putin in June, when the Russian president is expected to visit Japan for the Group of 20 summit in Osaka. Japan’s 64-year-old leader is desperate to leave a legacy beyond becoming in November Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, political pundits say.
Moreover, a breakthrough in the peace treaty negotiations, along with a successful hosting of the upcoming G20 summit in late June, are seen as important for his Liberal Democratic Party to clinch victory in a House of Councillors election likely to be held later in the summer, observers say.
Taking into consideration Russia’s hard-line stance, Abe is leaning toward accepting a peace treaty if the smaller two of the contested islands — Shikotan and the Habomai islet group — are handed over, sources in the Japanese government have said.
The 1956 declaration states that Shikotan and Habomai would be transferred to Japan following the conclusion of a postwar peace treaty. But it does not mention the islands of Kunashiri and Etorofu, which together account for 93 percent of the total area of the disputed territory. As the Japanese government has not officially admitted to a shift in its strategy on the territorial row, Abe will need to explain the new policy to the public, since it would lead to giving up Tokyo’s sovereignty claims to the two larger islands.
___
this drags on and on. It will be done but the kabuki aspect is fun to watch.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/23/national/politics-diplomacy/historic-deal-russian-held-islands-looks-no-nearer-abe-putins-fruitless-25th-meeting/