Bailing Out Member States: The European (Dis)Union
Over the years, my good friends at Capitalist Exploits (I highly recommend subscribing) have put together a number of outstanding thought pieces on where they see things headed.
They recently came out with a great overview of where Europe is headed. The trends they highlight are both interesting and actionable for those willing to put the time into thinking through the consequences of the new “Strongmen of Europe.” The EU has now had a decade of economic crisis and is slowly moving from economic crisis towards a full-fledged political crisis which will be its ultimate undoing. There will naturally be many actionable trades along the way. Most important amongst these will be;
Increased inflation
Issues with energy security
Increased national sovereignty
Ultimate breakup of the EU
Having a roadmap, gives you the ability to stay a few steps ahead of events with your positioning. With that in mind, I suggest you read the roadmap from Capitalist Exploits. While I don’t agree with everything that they point out, it is those minor disagreements that make late night Skype calls so interesting…
What Lies In Store For 2019 - Specific Focus: The European (dis)Union
There is so much going on that it can be hard to know where to look without throwing your hands up in the air and saying, “oh fuck it, I give up”. The problem is ignoring problems doesn’t make them go away, and if we get it wrong, we could end up seriously regretting decisions made today.
I’ll be honest with you, we’ve spent time reviewing much of what is taking place in the world at the moment. Not here with you, but with my team and often inside my wee head, hunched over my keyboard at 1AM after tossing and turning annoying my gorgeous wife and getting out of bed to look into something that’s bugging me and keeping me from sleep.
Much of what passes across my desk never makes it to the pages of Capitalist Exploits.. Quantity is not quality, and our capacity to take in and make sense of too much information has a tendency to rapidly invoke overwhelm.
In this service I attempt to tread the fine line between bringing to you what we feel is important, without drowning you in too much information and overwhelming your ability to keep up.
Onward…
I’m not sure what the most important topic to focus on is… but I do believe there are some that are more important than others. In the “important” category we feel that the Eurozone stands out like a diamond in goat shit.
Many may disagree with this assessment, and, if we scan the headlines during the course of 2018, we could have spent a godawful amount of time trying to figure out how the Ruskies colluded to bring Trump to power, or if they did so at all. We could have further - even more importantly - spent time figuring out whether this would have any
impact on investment markets or not. We could have spent an even ungodlier amount of time focussed on little Kim and his stated ambitions to nuke the “Great Satan”.
Probably more important than the aforementioned “non events” but staying in Asia, the fact that China completely ignored international law and has now all but secured the South China Seas, building military installations including missile shelters and aircraft runways, surely deserves attention.
Who cares about some little uninhabited islands anyway?
It’s not so much the islands but the fact that military installations on them extend Beijing’s powers substantially, and most importantly Beijing has now de facto secured control over the goods traded through these waters. This has all happened while the world has been caught up worrying about how badly May will botch Brexit, Russian bots, and which of the 598 genders we’re now supposed to call someone who refuses to acknowledge their biology.
Astounding!
For example, over 30% of global oil moves through the South China seas. Why this isn’t on everyone’s radar is pretty astounding to us here at Capitalist Exploits HQ.
long read this only a third of it.
rest at
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-25/bailing-out-member-states-european-disunion