dChan
Anonymous ID: 6b7132 Jan. 31, 2019, 2:56 p.m. No.4980604   🗄️.is 🔗kun

https://pos.org/in-nbc-wsj-data-president-trump-has-solid-standing-in-key-trump-counties/JANUARY 30, 2019

In NBC/WSJ Data, President Trump Has Solid Standing in Key Trump Counties

Written by Dave Wilson

 

Starting in 2017, the NBC/WSJ poll has tracked two types of key Trump Counties in competitive states: Trump Surge and Trump Flip. The Trump Surge counties are those where Trump outperformed Mitt Romney’s 2012 net vote percentage by 20% or more. And, the Trump Flip counties are the counties that flipped from voting for Barack Obama is 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016.

 

By using merged data from all registered voter interviews from the NBC/WSJ poll (N=9,180 total interviews in 2018), it allows us to look at these key counties. After controlling for demographic differences between years, Trump has maintained and solidified his position in both of these county types.

 

In the Surge Counties – where Trump ran up large margins in the 2016 election – the President’s approval has passed the 60% mark, with an approval rating of 62% approve-31% approve. This is an improvement over his 58%-33% rating in the 2017 data.

 

 

And in the Flip Counties, Trump’s approval stands at 47% approve-51% disapprove, modestly up from 45%-50% in 2017 NBC/WSJ data. At the same time, registered voters’ feelings towards the President remain unchanged at 39% positive in 2018 compared to 40% positive in 2017. (Trump was elected with a 31% positive-57% negative image in these counties that he flipped in 2016 – this is a marked improvement over his standing then.)

 

 

At the same time, the Republican Party’s image in these Flip Counties has improved from 32% positive-47% negative in 2017 to 34% positive-40% negative in 2018. This paired with the Democratic Party being slightly less positive in these key Flip Counties at 33% positive-42% negative, helps show that these counties will remain competitive and could still lean GOP lean in 2020.

 

With President Trump improving over 2017 in the Surge Counties where he needs to run up his vote margins, he does not need to win every single Flip County in 2020. And, given that his approval in these Flip Counties is stronger than his national job approval (44% approve-53% disapprove in the merged NBC/WSJ 2018 data), it is important to remember that the 2020 election will be decided in these counties and not the parts of the country steadfastly against President Trump.

 

Polling for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal is conducted by Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democratic pollster Fred Yang. This analysis is my own and does not necessarily reflect the views of NBC, The Wall Street Journal, or Hart Research Associates.

 

Share on Facebook290Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

Anonymous ID: 6b7132 Jan. 31, 2019, 3:09 p.m. No.4980737   🗄️.is 🔗kun

https://dailycaller.com/2019/01/30/trump-blames-paul-ryan-wall-funding/President Donald Trump says former House Speaker Paul Ryan promised to secure wall funding while Republicans controlled both Houses in exchange for the president’s signature on the 2018 omnibus spending bill.

 

But after the president signed the massive, $1.3 trillion spending package, Ryan reneged on his commitment.

 

“Well, I was going to veto the omnibus bill and Paul told me in the strongest of language, ‘Please don’t do that, we’ll get you the wall.’ And I said, ‘I hope you mean that, because I don’t like this bill,’” the president recounted in an exclusive Wednesday interview with The Daily Caller.

 

“Paul told me in the strongest of terms that, ‘please sign this and if you sign this we will get you that wall.’ Which is desperately needed by our country. Humanitarian crisis, trafficking, drugs, you know, everything — people, criminals, gangs, so, you know, we need the wall.”

 

“And then he went lame duck,” Trump said.

 

“And once he went lame duck, it was just really an exercise in waving to people and the power was gone so I was very disappointed. I was very disappointed in Paul because the wall was so desperately needed. And I’ll get the wall.”

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

THE DAILY CALLER: Well, the people who elected you are very interested in the immigration decision and what’s going on with this negotiation. Republicans in charge of Congress for two years didn’t get to your wall promise in Congress. How big of a roadblock to wall funding was Paul Ryan, now that he’s gone?

 

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Well, I was going to veto the omnibus bill and Paul told me in the strongest of language, ‘Please don’t do that, we’ll get you the wall.’ And I said, ‘I hope you mean that, because I don’t like this bill,’ although I love the bill for what it did for the military. And therefore, if it weren’t for the military, I would have vetoed it.

 

Just so you understand, our military needed funding desperately. Totally depleted. And this bill was great for the military. Had I vetoed it, you would never have gotten the numbers back that I got. 700 and 716 billion dollars over the past two years. Which is substantially more — much more than President Obama was able to get for the military.

 

So that was a negative, but a big factor as to why that was the reason I signed it. But another very big factor was the fact that Paul told me in the strongest of terms that, ‘please sign this and if you sign this we will get you that wall.’ Which is desperately needed by our country. Humanitarian crisis, trafficking, drugs, you know, everything — people, criminals, gangs, so, you know, we need the wall.

 

And then he went lame duck. And once he went lame duck it was just really an exercise in waving to people and the power was gone so I was very disappointed. I was very disappointed in Paul because the wall was so desperately needed. And I’ll get the wall.

 

THE DAILY CALLER: Did he lie to you? Did he play you?

 

TRUMP: I don’t want to say he lied. I think he probably meant it at the time, I guess. I hope. So I don’t call that lying. But when he went lame duck, meaning, he said he’s not running again — and it was very unusual because usually they’ll do that sometime after an election and he didn’t want to do that because it’s somewhat misrepresenting and I understand that too. But maybe you don’t run, okay? Maybe you just don’t run. And he had an excellent person taking his place in Congress, he ran a really great campaign, did a really good job.

 

So Paul said, please sign the omnibus bill. Now, in all fairness to Paul, I may have signed it anyway because it was so much more money than anyone ever thought possible for the military and equal to the wall, and maybe even greater than the wall was my promise to refurbish the military.