Anonymous ID: 5979fe Feb. 4, 2019, 5:35 a.m. No.5024474   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>4493 >>4517 >>4723

Bill Gross Is Retiring

 

Perhaps it was the stress of stuffing his ex-wife's air vents with dead fish, or simply the consistent inability to generate any alpha in his Janus Unconstrained Fund ever since departing Pimco in Oct 2014 in a scandal that rocked the asset management industry and led to a infamous schism between Gross and his former right hand man, Mohamed el-Erian, but whatever the ultimate reason, moments ago Janus announced that Bill Gross, who will be 75 in April, is finally retiring.

 

Gross, 74, had run the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund since late 2014, however his annualized returns of less than 1% at Janus "failed to live up to his stellar long-term record from the Pimco era" as Bloomberg diplomatically put it.

 

And speaking of Bill's reasons to retire, Bloomberg is quick to point out that Gross' Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund had another $60 million of redemptions in December, dropping assets to under $1 billion, and marking the 10th consecutive month of outflows.

 

In 2018, the unconstrained fund lost almost 4%, sparking a waterfall of investor redemptions that drove assets below $1 billion from the peak of $2.24 billion early in the year. Gross, who in September 2018 reduced his own stake in the fund, had blamed losses during the year’s first half partly on a misplaced bet that rates on U.S. Treasuries and German bunds would converge, apparently failing to account for hedging costs as we explained previously.

 

The billionaire money manager started his latest chapter with fanfare, compared by Janus Chief Executive Officer Dick Weil to Super Bowl-winning quarterback Peyton Manning, “that game-changing level of talent.” Gross poured $700 million of his personal fortune into the unconstrained fund, but he failed to attract much outside money and his performance relative to peers deteriorated each year.

 

“The sort of underperformance we’re seeing is challenging and disappointing to him more than any of us,” Weil, whose firm is now based in London, said in a Bloomberg Television interview last August.

 

In the statement Monday, Weil said: "Bill is one of the greatest investors of all time and it has been my honor to work alongside him. I want to personally thank him for his contributions to the firm.”

 

When Gross joined Janus, he knew time was limited to prove he retained his market mastery.

 

And sadly for the investing legend,his time has now run out, which is disappointing because At Pimco, Gross racked up one of the longest winning streaks of any money manager. The Pimco Total Return Fund, which he founded in 1987, became the world’s biggest mutual fund as assets swelled to almost $300 billion at its 2013 peak, generating annualized returns of 7.8 percent from inception through his last day.

 

As Bloomberg notes, Gross drove himself obsessively. A former devoted long-distance runner, he once raced from San Francisco to Carmel, California, and became hospitalized with kidney damage.

 

 

Pimco’s assets swelled after the 2008 financial crisis, when the Total Return Fund and other accounts produced gains even as stocks plunged. But a few years later, his performance wobbled. Total Return lagged peers in 2011 and again in 2013, exacerbating friction between Gross and colleagues. In early 2014, CEO and Co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian quit.

 

Gross sought to weed out managers he suspected of disloyalty, spurring executives at Pimco’s parent, German insurer Allianz to intervene. Gross eventually jumped ship before he could be thrown overboard. On Sept. 26, 2014, he left a handwritten note announcing his resignation as of 6:29 a.m. Pacific time – one minute before New York markets opened. Investors withdrew hundreds of billions of dollars, little of which followed Gross to Janus Capital, as the firm was known before its 2017 merger with Henderson Group.

 

    • *

 

“No other fund manager made more money for people than Bill Gross,” Morningstar Inc. said in January 2010, when it named him fixed-income manager of the decade.

 

Alas, not even Gross had any idea how to navigate the "new normal" in which not fundamentals or logic, but central banks were in charge of everything.

 

_________

 

Look up the divorce process with this guy. Funny!

Of course he is retiring since the bond market has nowhere to go but down (value-wise) and up in yields.

PIMCO was a huge 'help' to the FRB in keeping rates low when it worked with them to house major positions of the offloaded bond market.

 

Cap 2 is addition to article as it illustrates what is going on a bit better with adding the FRB tightening process to it.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-04/bill-gross-retiring-after-dismal-janus-bond-performance

Anonymous ID: 5979fe Feb. 4, 2019, 5:46 a.m. No.5024552   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>4744

The Coming Global Financial Crisis: Debt Exhaustion

 

The global economy is way past the point of maximum debt saturation, and so the next stop is debt exhaustion.

Just as generals fight the last war, central banks always fight the last financial crisis. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09 was primarily one of liquidity as markets froze up as a result of the collapse of the highly leveraged subprime mortgage sector that had commoditized fraud (hat tip to Manoj S.) via liar loans and designed-to-implode mortgage backed securities.

The central bank "solution" to institutionalized, commoditized fraud was to lower interest rates to zero and enable tens of trillions in new debt. As a result, total debt in the U.S. has soared to $70 trillion, roughly 3.5 times GDP, and global debt has skyrocketed from $84 trillion to $250 trillion. Debt in China has blasted from $7 trillion 2008 to $40 trillion in 2018.

A funny thing happens when you depend on borrowing from the future (debt) to fund growth today: the new debt no longer boosts growth, as the returns on additional debt are increasingly marginal. This leads to what I term debt exhaustion: lenders can no longer find creditworthy borrowers, borrowers either don't want more debt or can't afford more debt, and the cost and risk of the additional debt far outweigh the meager gains. Whatever credit is issued is gambled in speculations that the current bubble du jour will continue indefinitely.

Unfortunately, all central banks know how to do is goose liquidity to inflate asset bubbles and juice the issuance of more debt. If asset bubbles start to deflate, then central banks start buying mortgages, empty flats, stocks and bonds to prop up markets that would otherwise implode.

Equally unfortunately, propping up asset bubbles and stimulating more debt to chase speculative gambles only increases the fragility of the asset bubbles and the economy that has come to rely on them for "growth". A useful concept here is debt saturation: just as an absorbent material can only hold so much water, a corporation, household or economy can only support so much debt before servicing the debt reduces income and increases the risk of default.

The global economy is way past the point of maximum debt saturation, and so the next stop is debt exhaustion: a sharp increase in defaults, a rapid decline in demand for more debt, a collapse in asset bubbles that depend on debt and a resulting drop in economic activity, a.k.a. a deep and profound recession that cannot be "fixed" by lowering interest rates or juicing the creation of more debt.

 

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-coming-global-financial-crisis-debt.html

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Nothing illustrates the parabolic rise of debt creation better than the disconnect between SPY and HYG or high yield credit. The pause on the FRED data graph and the moonshot it had is directed displayed in cap 2.

Shortly after hussein's re-election.

Anonymous ID: 5979fe Feb. 4, 2019, 6:03 a.m. No.5024654   🗄️.is 🔗kun

Earnings calendar today.

 

Google reports after the close

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/earnings-calendar/us

Anonymous ID: 5979fe Feb. 4, 2019, 6:21 a.m. No.5024771   🗄️.is 🔗kun

>>5024744

if it's added to the national debt then someone or something still has to pay it off. It's probably an optical thing to add it in.

Collectively they got too fat thinking it would all be ok-that is a different discussion- but I hardly blame them as when in rome or wome!

Anonymous ID: 5979fe Feb. 4, 2019, 6:30 a.m. No.5024838   🗄️.is 🔗kun

>>5024804

spouse did as well. you have to stick with that narrative, as with most of these types, and it's not bad in a long term sense. It's the other things like selling hats through amazon.