In Exit Interview, Bill Gross Says Hedge Fund Model "Has Been Broken For A Long Time"
News that legendary investor and one-time "Bond King" Bill Gross would retire from investing after nearly five decades in the asset management business - a storied career where he built PIMCO into a giant in the industry while managing its Total Return bond fund, the largest mutual fund in the world - was perhaps the biggest investing headline during a day where the start of the Chinese lunar new year, a lull in US earnings and the national Super Bowl-inspired hangover day led to a dearth of news.
And in a coup for Bloomberg TV, Gross appeared on America's third most-popular financial TV network for an exit interview of sorts, where the manager of the Janus Unconstrained bond fund, which has persistently posted subpar returns since he jumped ship from PIMCO in 2014, delved into some of the biggest market topics of the day, while touching on some of his biggest regrets in recent years.
The conversation began, as most conversations with high-profile portfolio managers do these days, with a discussion of Gross's views on the long-term impacts of QE, and whether Gross believes central bankers 'got in his way' during the past few years.
Gross agreed that central banks have moved away form "Philips Curve theology" and now the big question facing markets is how this massive increase in leverage, and the rock-bottom interest rates that have been a big part of this, will lead to an insurmountable strain not just for every day savers, but for banks and the broader financial system.
"They didn't go by the book and it's up to the portfolio manager to analyze what the new book is…for five six seven years QE has provided an opportunity for bond investors to take advantage of capital gains. The question became what would the effect of US tightening by the Federal Reserve and the ultimate exclusion of Quantitative Easing and inclusion of Quantitative Tightening what would that do with respect to the ECB."
Asked about whether the breakdown in the Philips Curve or the massive increase in the size of the Fed's balance sheet was the greater harm, Gross replied that "it's basically both" because the "savings function" for investors has been put at risk. He also said that he sees the Federal Reserve ending the practice of quantitative tightening over "the next few quarters."
"I think it's basically both. In terms of the balance sheet I find it very interesting…in terms of the Fed it expanded its balance sheet form $1 trillion to $4 trillion in a world where the total credit universe was $60 trillion. They expanded that and basically equitized their portfolio to $4 trillion…and that was a very levered situation. But now quantitative tightening reducing that to some extent though probably going to stop in the next few quarters of so…it is perhaps at a point where the leverage inherent in the US economy and the Fed's balance sheet…is better, though not necessarily satisfactory."
[…]
"The disadvantage in addition to potential inflation down the road…the disadvantage to negative interest rates in the rest of the world is that savers are disadvantaged and insurance companies and banks are disadvantaged…so the saving function is at risk."
As for whether the Fed and the ECB can easily extricate themselves from the low-interest-rate world that they have created, Gross said that he's more focused on Japan, because the monetary experiments have been running for a much longer time frame.
_______
Of course he would say this on the way out. What a douchebag
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-04/exit-interview-bill-gross-says-hedge-fund-model-has-been-broken-long-time