Anonymous ID: ebbca1 Feb. 6, 2019, 7:41 a.m. No.5053592   ๐Ÿ—„๏ธ.is ๐Ÿ”—kun

This Is How Chinese Liquidity Injections Are Directly Affecting US Stocks

 

If there is one thing the events over the past two months have proven beyond a reasonable doubt, it is that when it comes to risk prices, only one thing matters - not fundamentals, not political risks, not earnings forecasts, not squiggly lines on charts, not opinions about the economy or even inflation and interest rate forecasts; Nope - the only thing that truly matters is how much liquidity is being generated or drained by the Fed at any given moment, i.e. is Powell hawkish or dovish.

 

And as we get fresh signals of economic slowdown both in the US and abroad - with Germany now on the verge of recession - coupled with a sharp drop in projected corporate profits

 

the S&P has continued to surge, up on 18 out of 24 trading days so far in 2019 with YTD gains of +9.20%, with Deutsche Bank calculating that only 5 other years in history have matched or beat this in terms of least number of negative days to this point in the year. 1954, 1961, 1965 and 1971 saw the same number, while only 1967 saw less negative days (5) through February 5th. Said otherwise, the S&P is now up +16.43% since its Christmas Eve trough, advancing on 21 of 28 days since then. Thatโ€™s the best such streak since November 2017.

 

What is behind this remarkable rally that has ignored both what is at best a mediocre earnings season, a drop in Q1 EPS forecasts amid broad profit warnings, and dismal economic news? According to Nomura's Charlie McElligott the answer is simple: Fed "rate cut" bets are accelerating again, with Eurodollar curves flattening powerfully overnight after the past few days of US data "misses."

 

As the Nomura strategist explains in his morning note, "the profile move overnight is the reacceleration of ED$ curve flattening as โ€œFed rate cutโ€ bets grow, again nearing the lows witnessed at the very start of 2019 following recent misses in US Dataโ€”with AHE, U-Rate, change of Manufacturing Payrolls, Durable Goods, Factory Orders and ISM Non-Manu all disappointing over the past four sessions."

 

And while stocks continue to levitate on hopes of a tide of liquidity washing up as soon as 2020 once the Fed starting cutting rates again (perhaps going all the way to negative if the San Fran Fed has its way), another key liquidity-based driver is coming out of China, where recent desperate credit/liquidity injection measures are finally starting to kick in.

rest at link

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The injection came on January 16th (cap 2)

Is it any wonder that we have moved higher and higher on lower and lower volumes?

Not to this anon.

See cap 3 for a long term of how this plays out. Larger and larger disconnect between actual performance and quant based 'estimates'

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-06/how-chinese-liquidity-injections-are-directly-affecting-us-stocks

Anonymous ID: ebbca1 Feb. 6, 2019, 8:09 a.m. No.5053838   ๐Ÿ—„๏ธ.is ๐Ÿ”—kun

>>5053739

NOTABLE to go along with the story yesterday about dorsey jaw-boning his investment in bc tech

 

>>5053780

absolutely is. system needed a way to transact outside of the normal traceable one.

Even though the rules are rarely enforced it is still knowable.

Anonymous ID: ebbca1 Feb. 6, 2019, 8:25 a.m. No.5053980   ๐Ÿ—„๏ธ.is ๐Ÿ”—kun   >>4013 >>4018

>>5053922

>you'll see it.. don't be so naive

So everyone will be forced to carry digital keys to access their money?

 

How is that going to work for the technology challenged?

 

List as many story's as you want, still need cash to do everyday transactions.

You have no idea what you are talking about

We did just fine without that tech.

 

The chain will be used to verify the cash supply once the bad actors are stripped out. We have had many issues with counter-fitting cash because the power to issue rests with the FRB/Treasury.

 

Your stupid glows.