>approaching from wrong angle
I don't think trying to predict future from past drops is the correct way.
In battle conditions you find out what the enemy has actually been up to once you make contact and then you use your reserves accordingly.
With a map, knowing what's behind you is the solution to having an advance on a chosen path blocked.
Q says future proves past, so any attempt to predict what will happen is not the approach called for, IMO.
If your prediction (advance) is wrong and you have no understanding of what's behind you, you're stuck. It's bottom up thinking. Top down thinking has the whole map in view from the get go so that alternatives are easy to assess when roadblocks occur.