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Gold wakes up
We are updating an article published in December to explain the mechanisms underlying the evolution of precious metal prices. Since then, gold prices have gained ground, driven by a recovery in emerging currencies, an easing of US real interest rates and, of course, a significant decline in equity markets. The assumptions made in December have been confirmed.
Concern is growing. Some may point at the US administration's tendency to disrupt the process of globalization, which is damaging to global growth. In addition to these growth concerns, there are inflationary pressures in the United States. In theory, this provides all the conditions for gold prices to shine, an effective store of value against inflation and a preferred asset to hedge against an economic downturn.
However, this is not the case. On the contrary, the stock market performance of gold metal is far from dazzling. To assess this paradox, it is necessary to focus on the different determinants of the price of gold, apart from the fundamental data specific to the physical market.
1) The dollar effect and emerging currencies
The opposite relationship between the greenback and dollar-denominated commodities is well known. Most times, a decline in the dollar is accompanied by an increase in the value of an ounce of gold (denominated in dollars) and vice versa. Understanding this relationship means understanding the attractiveness of gold for holders of other currencies. In other words, the stronger the dollar against its counterparts, the lower the purchasing power of holders of other currencies, implying lower demand and ultimately lower gold prices.
The graph below, which is simplistic at first glance, makes sense after a study of the main gold buyers, including China and India, and to a lesser extent, other countries such as Russia and Turkey.
In this context, it remains relevant to take into account the evolution of emerging currencies to understand the difficult path of gold since the beginning of the year. Led by massive capital repatriations, resulting from Fed policies, or by the escalation of trade disputes, emerging currencies are constantly losing ground, a phenomenon that affects more and more countries. More concretely, we are talking about an average depreciation of emerging currencies of more than 16% since February, which mechanically weakens the purchasing capacity of these countries on gold denominated in dollars.
It should also be noted that some countries, in order to stem the fall in their currencies, are forced, via their central banks, to sell part of their gold stocks, thereby fueling the fall in the price of gold metal (denominated in dollars).
https://www.marketscreener.com/GOLD-4947/news/Gold-wakes-up-27788514/?countview=0