Anonymous ID: 85be44 Feb. 23, 2019, 7 p.m. No.5354126   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>4585

Why is Deflation a Central Bank's Worst Nightmare?

 

 

Once deflation sets in, it can take decades for an economy to break out of its grip—Japan is still trying to climb out of a deflationary spiral dubbed the Lost Decades that began in 1990. But what can central banks do to fight the pernicious and devastating effects of deflation? In recent years, central banks around the world have used extreme measures and innovative tools to combat deflation in their economies. Below, we discuss how central banks fight deflation.

The Effects of Deflation

 

Deflation is defined as a sustained and broad decline in price levels in an economy over a period. Deflation is the opposite of inflation and is also different from disinflation, which represents a period when the inflation rate is positive but falling.

 

Brief periods of lower prices, as in a disinflationary environment, are not bad for the economy. Paying less for goods and services leaves consumers with more money left over for discretionary expenditures, which should boost the economy. In a period of declining inflation, the central bank is not likely to be "hawkish" (in other words, poised to aggressively raise interest rates) on monetary policy, which would also stimulate the economy.

 

But deflation is different. The biggest problem created by deflation is that it leads consumers to defer consumption of big-ticket items like appliances, cars and houses. After all, the possibility that prices may go up is a huge motivator for buying big-ticket items (which is why sales and other temporary discounts are so effective).

 

In the United States, consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy, and economists consider it one of the most reliable engines of the global economy. Imagine the negative impact if consumers defer spending because they think goods may be cheaper next year.

 

Once consumer spending begins to decelerate, it has a ripple effect on the corporate sector, which begins to defer or slash capital expenditures—spending on property, building, equipment, new projects and investments. Corporations may also begin downsizing to maintain profitability. This creates a vicious circle, with corporate layoffs imperiling consumer spending, which, in turn, leads to more layoffs and rising unemployment. Such contraction in consumer and corporate spending can trigger a recession and, in the worst-case scenario, a full-blown depression.

 

Another hugely negative effect of deflation is its impact on the debt burden. While inflation chips away at the real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) value of debt, deflation adds to the real debt burden. An increase in the debt burden during a recession increases defaults and bankruptcies by indebted households and companies.

Recent Deflation Concerns

 

Over the past quarter-century, concerns about deflation have spiked after big financial crises and/or the bursting of asset bubbles such as the Asian crisis of 1997, the "tech wreck" of 2000 to 2002 and the Great Recession of 2008 to 2009. These concerns have assumed center stage in recent years because of Japan's experience after its asset bubble burst in the early 1990s.

 

To counter the Japanese yen's 50% rise in the 1980s and the resultant recession in 1986, Japan embarked on a program of monetary and fiscal stimulus. This caused a massive asset bubble as Japanese stocks and urban land prices tripled in the second half of the 1980s. The bubble burst in 1990 as the Nikkei index lost a third of its value within a year commencing a slide that lasted until October 2008 and brought the Nikkei down 80% from its December 1989 peak. As deflation became entrenched, the Japanese economy—which had been one of the fastest-growing in the world from the 1960s to the 1980s—slowed dramatically. Real GDP growth averaged only 1.1% annually from 1990. In 2013, Japan's nominal GDP was approximately 6% below its mid-1990s level. (For more on the Japanese economy, see: From Mrs. Watanabe to Abenomics - the Yen's wild ride).

 

rest at link

 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/051315/what-deflation-and-how-do-central-banks-fight-it.asp

Anonymous ID: 85be44 Feb. 23, 2019, 7:10 p.m. No.5354295   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>4576

>>5354137

>his fucking wall is just all show and no go.

that is where I'm going to disagree and have to say that this is not a quick fix by any means.

 

Took very long to fuck this all up and I am happy with the progress from where it was in 2016. Most of us would be dead or in a much different state right now.

 

Just as steamed that Malpass was named at the world bank but also realize people are not actively dying because of that shit. That is moar of a slow death.

Bolton is an entirely different prospect. I felt the same when Haspel was named at C_A and that was early on. Confused me for sure so I spent many months just watching this here before I even posted.

Anonymous ID: 85be44 Feb. 23, 2019, 7:21 p.m. No.5354442   🗄️.is đź”—kun

>>5354400

digitzzz

love the culture but some of it I can do without like anime. not my style but if someone else enjoys it who am I to say right or wrong.

also appreciate nice pictures. was different when only film was used.