Anonymous ID: fa2a1c March 1, 2019, 9:20 a.m. No.5449099   🗄️.is 🔗kun

>>5449025

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Anonymous ID: fa2a1c March 1, 2019, 9:43 a.m. No.5449392   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>9656

GDP crash: Goldman, Atlanta and NY FRB see Q1 GDP Tumble below 1%

 

While the market was delighted on Thursday to see a delayed Q4 GDP print of 2.6%, which came in well above the expected 2.2% consensus number, we warned that "while Q4 was clearly a stronger than expected print, the real question is what happens in Q1, when most banks and nowcasts expect GDP to print below 1%, in some cases concerningly so."

 

Moments ago we got confirmation of precisely this, when following the latest dismal economic data including a 2 year low in the manufacturing ISM, a miss in UMich Consumer Sentiment, and a near record plunge in personal spending, Goldman launched its Q1 GDP tracking estimate at a paltry +0.9%. This forecast, as Goldman's chief economist Hatzius said, "reflects an expected drag from inventories, sequentially slower consumption growth, a decline in residential investment, and a four-tenths drag from the government shutdown."

 

It wasn't just Goldman, because at roughly the same time, the NY Fed's GDP Nowcast, which was launched to counter the Atlanta Fed's famous GDP tracker, crumbled from 1.22% last week (and 2.17% as recently as a month ago), to a stunning 0.88%, as a result of big declines in Personal Consumption, Housing Starts, Wholesale Inventories, and others.

rest at link

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-01/gdp-crash-goldman-atlanta-ny-feds-see-q1-gdp-tumble-below-1