Anonymous ID: 2a23c6 March 10, 2019, 4:36 p.m. No.5613476   🗄️.is 🔗kun

Trump's budget will project 3% GDP growth over the next few years – defying consensus forecasts

 

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump's budget will project that the economy continues to grow at a 3 percent rate or higher over the next five years, despite a more pessimistic consensus from outside forecasters.

 

The White House will release the president's budget Monday, along with its assumptions about how the economy will evolve under the administration's proposed policies. The forecasts will show GDP reaching 3.2 percent this year compared to last year and 3.1 percent in 2020, according to a copy of the projections obtained by CNBC. Growth will then level off at 3 percent through 2024, according to the projections.

 

Those estimates are markedly higher than independent outside projections.

 

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office forecast growth this year at 2.7 percent, followed by a significant dropoff next year to 1.9 percent as the boost from the new tax law peters out. After that, the CBO predicts growth will hover between 1.6 and 1.8 percent through 2029. The Federal Reserve predicts long-run growth at about 2 percent.

 

However, the administration will tout that it has met or exceeded its economic forecasts for the president's first two years in office, according to materials obtained by CNBC. In 2017, the White House budget projected growth would be 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. It actually hit 2.5 percent.

 

Last year, the administration forecast 3.1 percent growth by the end of the year. While government data said 2018 growth was 2.9 percent, economists on Wall Street who measure growth on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis say it was 3.1 percent for 2018.

 

In addition, outside estimates are typically based on current policies.

 

Trump's budget – like those of his predecessors – assumes that the proposals outlined in his budget are enacted. An administration official said that includes a one-time spike of $174 billion in defense spending for fiscal year 2020. The budget will also include deep cuts to all other federal spending: a 5 percent reduction from this year's sequester caps. The White House is also expected to seek $8.6 billion to build the border wall, an official said.

 

The White House budget will also likely call for making all individual and corporate tax cuts permanent, in a bid to boost growth in later years. The individual tax cuts are currently slated to expire after 2025, while some corporate provisions will phase out over a number of years.

 

The White House forecasts show the pace of growth edging down to 2.9 percent in 2025, then leveling off at 2.8 percent through 2029. That is on par with the administration's projections last year.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/10/trumps-budget-will-project-3percent-gdp-growth-over-the-next-few-years-defying-consensus.html

Anonymous ID: 2a23c6 March 10, 2019, 4:47 p.m. No.5613647   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>3702

The Federal Reserve, 10 years after the Great Recession

 

Ten years ago, the economy was teetering. The government had seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bank of America had bought a distressed Merrill Lynch, and 158-year-old Lehman Brothers had failed. The Federal Reserve loaned billions of dollars to prop up the global insurance giant American International Group. It cut interest rates to nearly zero and used Depression-era emergency powers.

 

60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley wanted to know what the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, was thinking—and how he planned to save the American economy. Pelley called Bernanke's office and remembers being told, "The chairman of the Federal Reserve does not do interviews."

But by 2009, the Fed was doing a lot of things it had never done before.

In March of that year, Bernanke sat down for a 60 Minutes interview in an effort to be more transparent with the public. As unemployment continued to rise, he wanted to keep the American public informed of how the Fed was responding, so he gave a follow-up interview a year later. This week on 60 Minutes, Pelley continues his tradition of interviewing the head of the Fed by speaking with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

"It's almost impossible to imagine just how different things are today," said Henry Schuster, who produced all three interviews.

Gone are the days of the Fed chair sleeping on a couch in his office, for example.

 

Those late nights were caused by a sense at the Fed that, although they had averted one crisis, landmines were all around. In his first 60 Minutes interview, Bernanke told Pelley the recession had been the worst downturn since the Great Depression. But that wasn't how he really felt.

 

"He confided later, after it was all over, that he believed what we faced in the financial crisis was the worst financial crisis in human history," Pelley said in the video above.

A PhD in economics with a specialty in the Great Depression, Bernanke believes it was the Federal Reserve itself that helped turn a recession into a global calamity in 1929. To prevent that from happening again, Bernanke took drastic measures, including using the Fed as a lender of last resort to prop up the economy.

 

With interest rates effectively at zero, the Fed began a policy known as quantitative easing in an effort to get business investment and credit markets moving again. The Fed started buying billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities, and at its peak, the Fed balance sheet held trillions of dollars in bank debt, mortgage-backed securities, and Treasury notes.

In a recent interview with Powell, Bernanke and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Powell admitted that he had been skeptical of his predecessor's decision and had raised questions about quantitative easing at the time. Looking back on it today, Powell said he realizes the risks he identified hadn't come to pass.

 

He later acknowledged that, if similar economic conditions present themselves in the future, the Fed would consider using quantitative easing again.

"These are some of these things that don't have a precedent," Powell said in the clip above. "And so you've got to go through them and bring your best thinking. And then learn lessons from what's happened."

 

Another lesson the Fed has learned, Powell said, is to provide a means in which large financial institutions can fail. He told Pelley the Fed now requires banks to have higher levels of liquidity and capital.

"Question is, how long does that last?" Pelley said in the video above. "Will the next generation of people who run the Fed forget these lessons of 1929 and 2008 and let it happen all over again?"

 

videos here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-federal-reserve-10-years-after-the-great-recession-60-minutes/