Anonymous ID: 7eb48a March 16, 2019, 1:38 p.m. No.5724187   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>4287

>>5724129

Wait…wrong J. Holmes…

 

"James R. Holmes: My North Korea Prediction for 2019

 

I am very much a North Korea pessimist.

by James Holmes

 

Editor's Note : Looking for more perspectives on North Korea? Check out all 27 expert predictions on North Korea in 2019 here.

 

Jokesters say it’s best to be a pessimist: you’re either right or you’re pleasantly surprised. I am very much a North Korea pessimist. If you survey nuclear history, you see that nuclear weapon states seldom give up that capability after going to all the trouble, costs, and hazards of obtaining them. South Africa did it, but that was in the context of the death of the apartheid regime. And the few outliers that did relinquish nuclear weapons probably regret the decision. Ukraine is one such outlier. Had it retained that fraction of the Soviet arsenal housed on Ukraine’s soil when the Cold War ended, Russia might not be so quick to detach territory from that country, support “little green men” waging irregular warfare in eastern Ukraine, or interfere with shipping entering or exiting the Sea of Azov. Forego the capability and you forego nuclear deterrence. That’s the lesson of nuclear disarmament as Kiev and other current and aspiring nuclear weapon states see it. "

 

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/james-r-holmes-my-north-korea-prediction-2019-39297