dChan
Anonymous ID: 7b6573 March 20, 2019, 7:27 a.m. No.5788820   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>8877

All You Need To Know About Today's FOMC Decision, And How To Trade It (as if anyone in retail space is still actively trading on fundy's or real analysis)

 

Welcome to the Fed's "day of humiliation."

 

Today's FOMC policy decision is eagerly anticipated by investors who, as Bloomberg notes, are "looking for further details about what the pivot to patience on rates means, how the new "dot plot" will look and how policy makers will approach inflation-targeting and balance-sheet runoff." Said otherwise, what investors are really looking for is whether the Fed will be humiliated even more when, somehow, it pivots even more dovishly after its stunning dovish reversal in January, by cutting the dot plot to just 1+1 for 2019/2020 (or even 0+0 hence on hold indefinitely), while slashing its forecasts and announcing the end of the Fed's balance sheet runoff, yet claiming that all is well and that it's not just a case of "the Fed sees a recession that the rest don't", even though just three months ago the Fed was especially euphoric and the balance sheet was on autopilot.

 

Here is a breakdown of the key topics that Powell may address today:

 

RATES: The markets are priced for an unchanged 2.25- 2.50%, and looking ahead, no further rate hikes are priced; in fact, there is roughly a 25% chance that rates will be cut this year, according to Fed Funds.

 

POSSIBLE STATEMENT TWEAK – labour market: Deutsche Bank argues that the FOMC will need to acknowledge the volatility in the recent data releases, as well as some signs that growth momentum is cooling, though will likely note that the underlying tone of the economy remains supportive. The recent employment situation report’s headline was weak, and this might see the Fed amend its current view that “labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate”, perhaps to “despite recent volatility job gains remain strong on average,” Deutsche suggests, while noting that the jobless rate has

moved lower.

 

POSSIBLE STATEMENT TWEAK – compensation inflation: Deutsche says the opening paragraph on compensation inflation (“although market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved lower in recent months, survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed”) might see the Fed mark-to-market the inflation expectations language to state that market-based measures of inflation compensation ‘have moved up but remain low’, reflecting Vice Chair Clarida's recent acknowledgement of break evens’ tentative move higher since January. Powell also recently remarked that inflation was muted, and accordingly, the FOMC was not minded to adjust rates while inflation and growth aren’t presenting a threat.

 

POSSIBLE STATEMENT TWEAK – household spending/business investment: The line that “household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier last year” might be tweaked, with the word “strongly” being replaced by “moderating,” Deutsche says.

 

SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: Goldman Sachs says the main question for the March meeting is just how far Fed officials will take the new theme of patience and the new perspective on inflation in their next set of projections.

 

Announcement is later…

rest at link

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-20/all-you-need-know-about-todays-fomc-decision-and-how-trade-it

Anonymous ID: 7b6573 March 20, 2019, 7:31 a.m. No.5788867   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>8972

>>5788804

we're still doing this eh?

I get the asset seizure part but why Is this such a big deal for you now when it's all public information and the drop on FB last week. Would love to know why the smaller amounts matter so much to you.