A no-deal Brexit remains highly likely
Forecasting Brexit is still the same old mug’s game it always was. But the probability of a no-deal Brexit has risen dramatically since last week’s summit of European leaders.
That scenario can be avoided, for now, if Theresa May were to be ousted as prime minister. The EU would always accept a request for a further delay in such a situation. But it would still insist Britain organise European Parliament elections on May 23 — the UK cannot be allowed to undermine the legitimacy of the European Parliament while it is negotiating its way out. And a new leader would face the same problems in finding a way out of the current impasse. The EU will not renegotiate Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement.
If Mrs May manages to hang on in Downing Street for the next two weeks, she could force an exit without a deal if this is what she wants. Contrary to rumours and misunderstandings, the UK parliament has not taken no-deal off the table. Even though the date of departure has now been pushed from May 29 to April 12, no-deal Brexit remains the legal default. It would require legislation to overturn this fundamental problem.
This is why the failure of the cross-party amendments brought by senior backbenchers, including Dominic Grieve, a former attorney-general, and Yvette Cooper, a former Labour cabinet minister, mattered. They would have given the House of Commons control over the agenda in time to legislate.
MPs will attempt a similar power grab this week but remember: the European Council only deals with prime ministers, not backbench committees. A customs union with the EU is the most promising among the alternatives to Mrs May’s deal. It would only require modest changes to the political declaration — a few sentences deleted, a few sentences added. It can be done in a weekend. But there is a significant risk of the no-Brexit option finding a majority. Advocates for another referendum do not have a majority either. But they could be a blocking minority. If second referendum supporters refuse to accept a customs union as a compromise, all bets are off. So no-deal Brexit remains a plausible outcome. Even if Mrs May does not immediately endorse a no-deal exit, she could choose a limited compromise and revert to that default if the gambit fails.
What about the argument that a no-deal is unlikely because nobody wants it? For starters, we do not really know what Mrs May wants. I distrust reports that try to infer her wishes from comments gleaned from people around her: they do not know her mind either.
It is also hard to make judgments from revealed preferences. Apart from a repeatedly stated will to “deliver Brexit”, Mrs May has been inconsistent. Also remember that history is full of examples of unwanted catastrophes due to be diverted at the last minute — the first world war among them.
We can say for sure that the EU does not want a hard Brexit. But perhaps the more important insight is that EU leaders do not wish to be held responsible. In offering a short delay, they have accomplished this task. No one — not even I — would blame them for a messy Brexit.
But do not misjudge their patience. Angela Merkel is concerned about the campaign for the upcoming EU parliament elections being hijacked by Brexit. The German chancellor can live with no-deal on April 12 but not later. EU leaders agreed a very good compromise last week. I do not think they are going to extend any further unless Mrs May is replaced, or the UK agrees to hold elections or a referendum.
After all, how do accidents happen? Think of it in terms of ranking preferences. A no-deal Brexit may not be the first choice of the EU or the UK government but nor is it the worst outcome for either. For the EU, the worst outcome is being held hostage by Brexit. For Mrs May, it is what she sees as the failure to deliver Brexit.
Here, for example, is one scenario where nobody wants a no-deal Brexit but it happens nonetheless. This is not my forecast, merely one possibility that I find at least as plausible as any other.
Mrs May offers to resign after the UK leaves the EU, and survives the latest cabinet coup. She agrees to drop one of her red lines — her opposition to a customs union. But she maintains her opposition to freedom of movement, a second referendum and participation in EU parliament elections.
Second referendum supporters, their spines stiffened by Saturday’s march in London, are digging in and are refusing to compromise. This would square with my own observation that some of its core supporters hate the idea of a compromise more than they hate a no-deal Brexit. No option, including a customs union, achieves majority backing in the House of Commons. The prime minister goes back to the EU without a plan. And the EU27 refuses to grant a longer delay.
Voila. You have your hard Brexit.
https://www.ft.com/content/a44897a8-4e1c-11e9-9c76-bf4a0ce37d49