tyb/s
Ignore The Yield Curve," They Said…
(Op-Ed)
(anyone NOT paying attention to this and calls themselves a professional is whistling past the graveyard-it is very real)
THIS NIGGA IS SERIOUSLY BASED
However, you didn’t.
Despite all of the media “hoopla” about the rally, the reality is that for most, they are simply getting back to even over the last year.
That is, assuming you didn’t “sell the bottom” in December, which by looking at allocation changes, certainly appears to be the case for many. (they always seem to do this at each qtr end-it's pretty funny imo-day late and many dollar's short)
If we deconstruct the ratio we can see the rotation a bit better
(please visit the link given, at bottom, for a good visual presentation of this text….too many chart's to add here)
Not surprisingly, historically speaking, investors had their peak stock exposure before the market cycle peak. As the market had its first stumble, investors sold. When the market bounces, investors are initially reluctant to chase it. However, as the rally continues, the “fear of missing out or F.O.M.O” eventually forces them back into the market. This is how bear market rallies work; they inflict the most pain possible on investors both on the bounce and then on the way back down.
However, for the moment, we are still in the midst of a bear market rally. This will be the case until the market breaks out to new highs. Only then can we confirm the previous consolidation is complete and the bull market has been re-established.
The good news is on a very short-term basis, the market IS INDEED bullishly biased and coming off an extremely strong first quarter rally. ( this is not in dispute as the results clearly show this or to put it in perspective "it is what it is'') The current momentum of the market is strong as bullish optimism has regained a foothold.
Nonetheless, the markets are close to registering a “golden cross.” This is some of that technical “voodoo” where the 50-day moving average (dma) crosses above the longer-term 200-dma. This “cross” provides substantial support for stocks at that level and limits downside risk to some degree in the short-term. (see here for definition of this technical pattern:
What is a Golden Cross?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp)
Over the next couple of weeks, you are going to see a LOT of commentary about “the Golden Cross” buy signal and why this means the “bull market” is officially back in action. While “golden crosses” are indeed bullish for the markets, they are not an infallible signal. The chart (at link)shows the 2015-2016 market where investors were whipsawed over a 6-month period before massive Central Bank interventions got the markets back on track.
(this is the currency mkt/FRB and moar specifically yet another intervention by the People's Bank of China PBOC)
What Can You Do?
I don’t disagree that the markets could certainly rise from here, in the short-term. I answered this question last week:
“Are we going to hit new highs you think, or is this a setup for the real correction?”
The answer is “yes” to both parts.
The mainstream media’s advice is simply:
“Since you don’t know when a bear market will start, you just have to ride it out.”
This is the problem with the mainstream media and the majority of the financial advice in the world today.
It is not required that you know precisely when one market cycle ends and another begins.
Investing isn’t a competition. It is simply a game of survival over the long-term.
While it is critically important we grow wealth while markets are rising, it is NOT a requirement to obtain every last incremental bit of gain there is. Staying too long at the poker table is how you leave broke.
Rest at link
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-30/ignore-yield-curve-they-said
Also visit this site for any unfamiliar terms you may find here or at any financially related article you read:
https://www.investopedia.com/dictionary/
Judge Wants to Control PG&E’s Dividends Until It Reduces Risk of Fires
Wall Street Journal via Mkt screener
A federal judge is threatening to prevent PG&E Corp. from resuming dividend payments to shareholders until it reduces its role in sparking California wildfires, an action with little precedent that could have big repercussions for other companies put on probation.
William Alsup, a U.S. district court judge in Northern California, began overseeing PG&E's probation after the utility company was convicted of safety-related violations following a natural-gas explosion that killed eight people in 2010.
Now that state investigators have linked PG&E equipment to wildfires that have killed dozens of people in recent years, Judge Alsup is proposing to prevent the company from doling out dividends until it meets goals to trim hundreds of thousands of trees near its power lines. A hearing on the matter is set for Tuesday.
The judge has broad authority to take serious steps against PG&E, legal experts say, after a federal sentencing commission issued new guidelines in the 1990s that enable federal authorities to go beyond collecting fines and craft measures to improve compliance from companies on probation. But his requirements would be largely unprecedented, and could redefine the boundaries of federal authority in sanctioning repeat corporate offenders.
"This is very unusual," said Jennifer Arlen, director of the program on corporate compliance and enforcement at New York University School of Law. "On the other hand, it sounds like PG&E may have opened themselves up to this."
Federal judges have placed a number of companies on probation due to safety-related concerns, including BP PLC following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident and oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and Consolidated Edison Inc. following a 1989 steam-pipe explosion in New York City. But it is extremely unusual for a judge to substantially alter those terms to punish further wrongdoing, and legal experts said restricting dividends has rarely, if ever, factored into probation requirements.
In a March order, Judge Alsup wrote that PG&E paid shareholders nearly $2 billion in dividends over 2016 and 2017, while maintaining a dismal record on pruning or removing trees that could fall onto its power lines. he judge argued that such payments should be barred until the company achieves full compliance with both state requirements and its own plans for clearing vegetation, which it recently expanded as part of a stepped-up effort to mitigate wildfire risk.
The company, which sought chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January, pushed back, responding that such an imposition could spook investors and limit its access to capital after it restructures in court. It emphasized that it has taken steps to improve its vegetation management practices in recent years and will continue to do so.
A spokeswoman for the district court said Judge Alsup doesn't comment on active cases.
https://www.marketscreener.com/PG-E-CORPORATION-13946/news/PG-E-A-Judge-Wants-to-Control-PG-E-s-Dividends-Until-It-Reduces-Risk-of-Fires-28266571/
some of us pay attention to this stuff even though know it's fake and contrived. The strip mall mentality moved in long ago. The entire existence of shell co's and tax shelter's, along with all the incorporation's in delaware have got to go-no need for that imo.
You are correct with the quote. Time marches on for them.
o7