dChan
Anonymous ID: b5a11f April 1, 2019, 9:09 a.m. No.6004444   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>4465

Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession?

(Op-Ed)

Barron's "article"

“Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. . Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.”

But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party to end.- another BASED nigga So, despite a struggling stock market over the last year, slowing economic growth, and a collapsing yield curve, there are still plenty of articles suggesting you should just ignore it all and remain invested.

Economist Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics has a message for his fellow economists who are predicting a recession in the next year: ‘The Fed isn’t going to kill this expansion.'” – Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics“Recessions are typically caused by one of two things, he says: Imbalances develop in the economy or financial system (like a bubble in the stock market or in housing), or the Federal Reserve panics and raises interest rates too much in response to unexpected inflation caused by an overheating economy. Neither of those triggers is present.”

MMMMKAYYYY……maybe Ryan just doesn’t get out of the house much but saying there isn’t a bubble in the stock market is like saying Mount Everest is just a mountain.

(Moody's was at the center of the ratings scandal for debt issuance-just continued to pump out AAA ratings on anything and everything because as the famous quote says:

"“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -Upton Sinclair

  • and another fuck you to Al Gore for stealing this for his climate change bullshit)

See here:

How Moody's sold its ratings - and sold out investors

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24559855.html

 

The Fed tends to stop hiking interest rates when they realize they have caused problems within the economy, like a sudden downward shift in housing, autos, and asset prices.Sound familiar? The problem with all of the mainstream claims that there is “no recession in sight” is those claims are based on analysis of unrevised and lagging economic data.

This is an incredibly important point.

The problem with making an assessment about the state of the economy today, based on current data points, is that these numbers are “best guesses” about the economy. However, economic data is subject to substantial negative revisions in the future as actual data is collected and adjusted over the next 12-months and 3-years. Consider for a minute that in January 2008 Chairman Bernanke stated:

“The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”

“But if the Federal Reserve can’t predict a recession, no one can.”

(this is why YOU need to be educated in the way's of the financial world. Every single recession that has habbened the FRB has NEVER been in the front of it with regards to calling it out-they always say "we did not see this coming".) For example, let’s take a look at the data below of real (inflation-adjusted)economic growth rates:

 

September 1957: 3.07%

May 1960: 2.06%

January 1970: 0.32%

December 1973: 4.02%

January 1980: 1.42%

July 1981: 4.33%

July 1990: 1.73%

March 2001: 2.31%

December 2007: 1.97%

Each of the dates above shows the growth rate of the economy immediately prior to the onset of a recession (this is historically revised data). “The recent decline from the peak in the market, is just that, a simple correction. With the economy growing at 3.07% on an inflation-adjusted basis, there is no recession in sight.”

(Inflation statistics are inherently biased as they do not take into account food, fuel, housing costs-they are typically revised downwards at each and every release date-This is an issue that will need to be addressed.)

At those points in history, there was NO indication of a recession “anywhere in sight.”

But the next month one began.

So, is the market really sending mixed messages?” The Market Isn’t Confused.

(Based statement of this article)

This is also likely a mistaken assumption. In reality, it may just be the unwillingness of “eternally optimistic”individuals to pay attention. In other words, the decline from the peak was “just a correction” as economic growth was still strong.

(Please visit this article's link for moar information. Several charts explaining this reasoning why YOU need to take control of understanding what habbens to your money. Never trust anyone to do it for you-and if you do make sure they are well-versed in these types of topics.)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-01/stock-market-confused-you-are-about-recession

What is definition of Inverted Yield Curve?

Short video explaining it here

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invertedyieldcurve.asp