their are only two ways the global economy doesnt collapse as this goes down. 1) Russia is coordinating with us about this at a deeper than we know publicly (historically precedent is there. for example look up the largest grain sale in history. the seller was the USDA and the buyer was USSR it was back in the mid 1970s) 2) a scenario i have overlooked. remember economic collapse is not a bug in the system to them it is a feature. too many parts interconnect with each other for anyone to really know what could be the trigger. For example, Volcker raised the interest rate after signaling to Reagan that he would do as much if the administration didnt curb spending (star wars and defense). that interest spike was for domestic market, but since dollar had become de facto currency of debt servicing thanks to petrodollar arrangement, the hike in rates increased debt payment minimums for states that recieved loans from other states. within months mexico publicly announced default and a cascade followed thereafter. I mentioned thomas that you are first ive heard speak of kondratiev waves, well one of my mentors was an econometrician (stat models of economics) I figured this out about 2 years ago, and have been holding off a job search as lkng as possible as this is reality to me. The fact of the matter is the way we gauge unemployment makes it appear as though fewer people are out of work, and honestly trump has been working hard to provide other conditions that are suggesting more people are finding work faster, but the number of people out of the labor force because they stopped looking is unmentioned. its not trumps fault thats the way shit is measured. hes also not wrong to tout the decline in the indicator, its just there is more to it than that. the only thing keeping this economy alive and buying time for labor force to increase and productivity gains is the damn valuation of assets (stock market) which is wayyyyy overvalued thanks to tech companies that in actuality sell promise and potential but not products or fruits of labor. if the bubble bursts b4 labor has a chance to pick up that slack (and there is a lot of slack there) then it will be felt (unless scenarios 1 or 2 above). Furthermore, the student loan issue is much much bigger than people seem to grasp. i have tried to lay it out in general but see few signs of anyone grasping the implications. it is not only valued as a large share of household and personal debt as recorded on the books, but since the 1970s student loans have been treated in manner similar to mortgage debt. remember 2008? yeah they didnt address the problems of derivatives then so student loans are still tranched into credit default swaps and student debt backed securities. So take the balue of atudent loan debt you see in write ups and magnify it to properly reflect leveraging and then add in the fact there is no recourse for inability to pay. Bankruptcy is one form, I am sure other forms have existed. but none allow all sides to write down the debt. thats a problem additionally.
you were spot on in your advice about food provisions as inflation and inventory will hit there first.