For first time in a decade, U.S. companies could report lower profits on higher revenue
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is bracing for large U.S. companies to report a decline in quarterly profits even after raking in higher revenues, something that has not happened in more than a decade.
S&P 500 companies due to report in the coming weeks face tough comparisons with last year, when the U.S. tax code overhaul helped boost profits by more than 20%.
But with rising costs, some resulting from tariffs, analysts see profit margins shrinking by 1.1 percentage point, the first year-over-year decline in at least two years, IBES data from Refinitiv showed.
“Companies are experiencing rising input costs as well as increases in labor costs from modestly rising wages,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco in New York.
First-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to fall 2.5% from a year earlier, which would mark the first quarterly U.S. decline since 2016. Revenue is meanwhile seen up 4.8%.
Costs for certain raw materials like aluminum have increased as the United States slapped tariffs on imports from China and other countries.
First-quarter earnings could be crucial to the bull market’s continued success, with some investors seeing them as the catalyst to either lift stocks to all-time highs or pour cold water on the rally.
Stocks have bounced back from a late-2018 selloff on optimism that the United State could seal a trade deal with China and expectations the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates again any time soon.
Delta Air Lines Inc is due to report on Wednesday, while JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co report on Friday. Results from Netflix Inc and some big industrial names like Honeywell International Inc are expected next week.
DIVIDED OUTLOOK
The last time profits fell while revenue grew was the third quarter of 2008, in the depths of the financial crisis. Still, strategists appear divided on what the rest of the year holds for earnings.
It is also not unusual for S&P 500 companies to top analyst expectations.
Since 1994, S&P 500 earnings have beaten estimates by an average of 3.2%, based on Refinitiv data, and some strategists think the S&P 500 will end up posting growth for the first quarter.
And nearly 83% of earnings are beating analysts’ expectations so far this quarter, based on the 23 S&P 500 companies that have already reported.