Mkt Fag US Report

S&P Surges Above 2,900 On Chinese Credit Creation Flood, Trade Data Bounce

(the ubiquitous rise in oil to correspond with the equity futures ramp as well-Saudi's are happy as that will appreciate the newly issued aramco bonds. The 10yr yields rising on this news as well)

What was a muted overnight session, with traders wearily awaiting today's earnings from JPM and Wells, officially starting Q1 earnings season, and with mixed Asian equities prompting a nervous start in Europe, a sharp rebound in Chinese trade data coupled with a surge in Chinese credit creation, bolstered risk assets across the board, helping underpin "signs of resilience" in the global economy, and prompted a broad bid for risk. As a result, S&P futures rallied sharply back above 2,900, the highest since September 2018m ahead of the first major bank earnings in this cycle.

(The PBOC began a multi-trillion Yuan printing festival in early january-thi is what is impacting the mkts and the 'results' that JPM has put forth-moar on that steaming POS lying crap wagon later)

Adding to the worries, China’s imports fell more than expected, suggesting its domestic demand remains weak: imports were down 7.6% yoy in March, below consensus. That left the country with a trade surplus of $32.64 billion for the month, much larger than forecasts of $7.05 billion.

China's gift to markets, and the shift in sentiment came hours before the first-quarter reporting period begins in earnest Friday, with results from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 2.54% and the greenback weakened versus most major currencies, particularly against the euro.

European equities moved back into positive territory, led by autos and basic resource sectors. 10Y German yields rose ~2.5bp back above 0%, with bund and UST futures snapping back towards the week’s lows in decent volume. Gilts followed, with yields up ~2bp across the curve; peripheral and semi-core European spreads tightened in tandem. WTI crude gained over 1%, lifting commodity currencies. Chinese yuan strength providing support for EMFX and metals markets.

Also of note, Chevron announced an agreement to acquire Anadarko for USD 33bln at USD 65/share; will assume estimated net debt of USD 15bln. Anadarko shares soared higher by around 20% in pre-market.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,902.00

STOXX Europe 600 up 0.03% to 387.04

MXAP unchanged at 162.14

MXAPJ up 0.3% to 541.62

Nikkei up 0.7% to 21,870.56

Topix down 0.07% to 1,605.40

Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 29,909.76

Shanghai Composite down 0.04% to

3,188.63

Sensex up 0.2% to 38,695.19

Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,251.32

Kospi up 0.4% to 2,233.45

German 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 0.008%

Euro up 0.4% to $1.1303

Italian 10Y yield fell 4.2 bps to 2.017%

Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.0%

Brent futures up 0.8% to $71.37/bbl

Gold spot little changed at $1,293.38

U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 96.93

US Event Calendar

8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%,

prior 0.6%; Export Price Index MoM, est.

0.2%, prior 0.6%

10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 98.2, prior

98.4; Current Conditions, prior 113.3;

Expectations, prior 88.8

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-12/sp-surges-above-2900-chinese-credit-creation-flood-trade-data-bounce

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures

https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

The big banks obviously need something to make the earnings reports look good-they got that with the yuan being printed at the fastest rate it has ever been done. Of course that is not a factor when that industry is engaged in pushing out the highest amount of crap IPO's it has ever done- Lyft, UBER, Pinterest, Slack, etc to name a few. It's so bad that Morgan Stanley is most likely being sued by the underwriter's of Lyft for illegally recommending short product's to it's clients in front of it;s own offering of UBER. You may see this mkt at close to record high's but as far as how it got there it is based upon many lie's and a strong lack of any enforcement of the rules on how it operates. I suppose all would be good for you if when you looked at your bank account and found it had no money you could call up a friend and, at no cost to you, instantly be solvent with a fresh pile of cash sitting there for you to do as you please. That is what is currently going on in our mkts.

>>6149670

get yourself educated newfag. It's a slide to you because you are ignorant. Glowing hard there

>>6149717

"you people". Funny shit ignorant fucktard.

Go ahead and miss the boat. Not my problem but soon will be your's

You think this is a sound monetary system at work?

see

>>6149657

>>6149710

and you believe what they say?

I have plenty of things to sell to you if all you are going to do is blindly believe a system that depends on FIAT creation to exist.

Good luck with that.

>>6149771

Read it asshole, not shilling anything. It's a report and nothing moar. This has nothing to do with love for country. It obviously does for you. This is based on 3 decades of experience of which you have no understanding of.

Question my patriotism at your own peril. Now kindly fuck off and waste someone else's time.

JPMorgan Soars As Q1 Results Smash Expectations

of course they do when you had the benefit of trillions in yuan, constantly shifting credit loss scenarios and a mark-to-model instead of mark-to-market accounting practice's

So much for fears the banks would drag down Q1 earnings season.

In a big reversal from the sharp slump in Q4 bank earnings, moments ago JPMorgan put bank stocks on the front foot and saw its stock price surge, when it reported revenue, earnings and most importantly FICC profits that beat expectations across the board.

The biggest US bank reported record GAAP revenue of $29.1 billion and "managed revenue" of $29.9 billion, beating expectations of $28.36 billion. This translated into Q1 EPS of $2.65 (and adjusted EPS of $2.60), also handily beating the $2.35 estimate.

Commenting on the results, CEO Jamie Dimon said that "in the first quarter of 2019, we had record revenue and net income, strong performance across each of our major businesses and a more constructive environment. Even amid some global geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to grow, employment and wages are going up, inflation is moderate, financial markets are healthy and consumer and business confidence remains strong."

While some were expectating net interest income to drop as a result of the collapse in the yield curve, this did not happen, and in fact NII rose $100MM from Q4 and $1.1 billion from Q1 2018 to a record (!) $14.6 billion. Again, this comes at a time when the yield curve inverted, which will prompt questions just what is driving JPM's interest income if it's not the shape of the yield curve.

Of note, JPM recorded a provision for credit losses of $1.495 billion, just above the $1.487 billion analysts were expecting, and up $330MM from a year ago. JPM blamed the jump in provision for credit losses on "a net reserve build of $135 million on select commercial & Industrial client downgrades" So look for this question during the earnings call: which clients, as the answer will signal where JPMorgan is seeing stress.

Looking at the big picture, the bank said its overhead ratio which measures how much it costs to produce a dollar of revenue, dropped to 56%, compared with 60% in the fourth quarter. JPMorgan said in February it's hoping to get that metric down to 55% this year.

Breaking down the bank's impressive revenue number, analysts immediately honed in on the Investment Banking revenue, which hit $1.75BN in Q1, up 10% from a year ago, and roundly beating expectations of $1.63 billion. The jump reflected "higher debt underwriting and advisory fees, partially offset by lower equity underwriting fees."

Equity Markets revenue of $1.7B, was down 13% YoY which in turn "reflected lower client activity, predominantly in derivatives.

(they are hurting badly here with a double-digit % loss in it's bread and butter-and it's constant shifting of how much it allows for credit loss' is what masks this in the overall report)

Turning to expenses, costs rose 2% to $16.4 billion, in line with what analysts were expecting. The bank says the increase was driven by investments in technology, marketing, real estate and front-office hires. Within investment banking, expenses were $5.5 billion, down 4% Y/Y due to "lower performance-based compensation and lower FDIC charges, partially offset by higher investments in technology."

Finally, looking ahead, the company provided its brief forecast, noting that it continues to expect net interest income to be above $58 billion for the year, which some noted is a little light. According to Bloomberg, "loan growth coming in on the lighter side and that’s probably a good thing. If we are thinking about being closer to a recession, and late in the cycle, that’s what you would like to see." JPM also expects adjusted expenses below $66BN in 2019, and less than $5.5BN in charge offs.

Not surprisingly, in light of these impressive results, JPM's stock is up 2.5% pre market.

Securities Services revenue was $1.0 billion, down 4%, predominantly driven by fee and deposit margin compression, lower market levels and the impact of a business exit, largely offset by increased client activity."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-12/jpmorgan-soars-q1-results-smash-expectations

Moar drivel from a system that is reliant upon FIAT creation to exist. Bet no one asks the question on the call about the credit loss scenario's always being raised or lowered and then applied to the balance sheet as if were real money to be made or lost. (see highlighted area on cap 2) All it is, is a forecast of how much or little they will lose on lost or non-performing debt/assets. This is a game that has been played at all the banks for many year's. Time to step up SEC. Way overdue

>>6149855

that is there problem and it will habben. Question is when. Don't know that. You destroy demand from around the world on the back of shifting industrial production to that country and it will have a result.

nice to see the freeze out of anything financial stil habbening in here. love it

>>6149891

you guy's are touchy this morning. I wonder why?

kek

>>6149941

Not bitching at making money anon. You have little understanding on how it's made. That is the real question here. Go ahead and believe what the system say's on how they achieve it.

Good luck with that.

>>6149971

and yet you blindly think that since stocks go 'up' you have 'made money'. Will you sell them today?

If you don't you haven't made jack shit. Just a piece of paper that say's you did. ZH is good for one thing: charts and graph's and has been well before those people who bought it were involved. But I see how your attitude of 'making money' when you actually have not done a thing to actually book a profit cloud's your attitude.

>>6150017

with the marker of finance spam anon given by you, can do that yourself. Know all about it.

and fuck off