tyb
All About the Gold and Silver Futures Market
part #1
(here is some background information on the how(s) and why(s) regarding the reason that metal's market's are the most manipulated in the world. Space dictates that all these things cannot be covered in one post. It involves COMEX or Chicago Board of Trade, Algo trading, manipulated reports of that trading etc)
Basics of Algorithmic Trading: Concepts and Examples
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/101014/basics-algorithmic-trading-concepts-and-examples.asp
article starts here:
All About the Gold and Silver Futures Market
Although this story usually refers specifically to silver, the same applies to gold with a few minor differences (e.g. the contract size of 100 vs 5,000 oz, and the costs involved).
Silver futures are just an agreement between two parties, where one agrees to buy a specific amount of silver from the other at a set time in the future. In the United States, this is normally done through an organization called COMEX.
So for this purpose silver=gold and gold =silver
What is a Short Sale?
please see investopedia dictionary
How Does the Buying Process Work (Going Long)?
Let's say it is January 1, 2010. You decide that you want to buy some silver. You decide to 'go long' 1 contract of June, 2010 silver at $20/ounce. This means that you agree to buy 5,000 ounces of silver (the amount per contract) in June, 2010 (although if you do not want to take delivery, you can sell the contract before June, 2010) .
In order for you to make this agreement, someone else needs to 'go short' 1 contract of June, 2010 silver at $20/ounce, in which they agree to sell 5,000 ounces of silver at $20 in June. If they want, they can deliver the silver to the warehouse and get their $20/ounce, or they can buy a long position to offset their short position.
Where Does the Silver Come From (Taking Delivery)?
The vast majority of futures contracts end up being settled in cash, where no silver changes hands. But, if you want the physical silver, you can get it – after all, that is the whole point of the futures market. When your contract is about to expire, here are the possible outcomes:
1.You decide that you want the silver, and you want to keep it in the COMEX warehouse. You wait (called 'standing for delivery'), and by the end of June, 2010 the short will have given the Clearing House a Notice of Intention to Deliver. The Clearing House will then send an Assignment Notification to the seller and to you, which lets you know who the seller is, and a list of the serial numbers of the bars you will receive. You will also receive an invoice. The short will deliver to a COMEX warehouse the 5,000 ounces of silver (or turn in a warehouse receipt, if they have one – it appears that they can buy them from bullion banks that have silver in the Registered category). You are then given the warehouse receipt (or your dealer can hold it for you), at which point you own the silver.
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You decide that you want to take delivery. The same as situation #1 happens, except you then immediately request delivery and turn in your warehouse receipt. You get your silver.
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You decide that you do not want the silver, you want to take the profit or loss. In this case, you sell your contract at the current price (before the beginning of June, 2010 – or else you may have to take delivery). If the price is now $21, you make $5,000 profit; if it is $19, you have a $5,000 loss .
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You decide that you do not want the silver, but you want to keep a futures position. In this case, you roll over the contract, by selling your current contract and buying one for a future month.
What is in the Warehouses?
(this is where it get's murky as in the past the trader's who stood for delivery were forcing the COMEX to reveal this-as in to say did they really have this stored for real delivery)
COMEX has several warehouses for metals (see the lists for silver and gold). They contain lots of silver. They had 152.003 million ounces (as of 17 Jan 2013), worth about $2523.25 million. This is split into two categories: Eligible and Registered.
Eligible silver is silver that is in a COMEX vault and has been determined to meet the COMEX requirements (e.g. minimum fineness and weight, acceptable refiner). Often this is silver that has been purchased by a long (paid in full, not part of a COMEX contract) at some point in the past (that they are currently paying storage fees for). The silver is eligible for delivery at any point that the owner wants. It has been assigned to the owner, who has the serial numbers of their bars. Eventually, it will either be delivered to the owner, or become registered silver. It is the same as silver in any other vault, except that the silver is within the COMEX system (known to meet COMEX requirements).
All About the Gold and Silver Futures Market
part 2
Position Limits
COMEX has position limits, which are the maximum number of contracts that you can have open at one time. As of this writing (June, 2010), anyone with 150 silver (or gold) contracts needs to report to COMEX their positions. The limit is 1,500 contracts in the current (spot) month for silver (3,000 contracts for gold), with 6,000 silver (or gold) contracts in all months combined. The position limits can be found at the COMEX website.
For silver, the 1,500 contracts controls 7,500,000 ounces of silver, worth about $124.50 million. For gold, the 3,000 contracts controls 300,000 ounces of gold, worth about $376.77 million.
Costs
There are various costs involved in purchasing silver (or gold) through the futures markets. Here are the ones we are aware of:
• A commission, paid to your broker, that includes exchange fees. This is to buy the original contract and receive delivery on it. One person reported a $100 broker fee for handling delivery (in addition to the standard commission to buy the original contract).
• The actual cost of the silver. This is the price per ounce multiplied by the number of ounces you will actually receive (which may vary up to 6%).
• If the seller pre-paid storage costs, you will be responsible for up to 30 days worth (per 7A06(F)), but you would have paid that to the warehouse anyways if the seller had not prepaid. The seller has to pay the storage costs up to and including the day of delivery.
• If the seller paid for 'in and out labor', you are required to pay half of it, but you would have paid that anyways if the seller had not paid the fee. In other words, the seller paid to have the silver put into the warehouse and taken out of the warehouse – so you are responsible for the cost to get it out of the warehouse.
• Transportation. You can pick it up yourself (which is not recommended!), or have it transported for you. For silver, the one report we've heard of is about $1,000-$2,000 to deliver 1 contract (5,000 ounces). In 2003, Brinks would have charged up to $.09 to $.27/ounce for gold (minimum $135), plus a $20 security charge per a silverbearcafe article (confirmed about $150 in 2009 here).
•Monthly storage fee, if you have the silver or gold stored in a warehouse. COMEX reports in June, 2010 that for silver it costs from $30-$35/month per contract, or $.072-$.084/oz per year. However, the Delaware Depository lists their cost as $20/contract per month, or $.048/year per ounce (in 2004, they charged $18.50/month). For gold, it is $12-$15/bar monthly, or $1.44-$1.80/year per ounce.
•'Out Charge' or 'Delivery Out' - The charge to remove the silver from the warehouse. In June, 2010 COMEX reports that the out charge is $125 per contract ($.025/ounce), although Delaware Depository states $100/contract ($.02/ounce) on their website ($65 in 2004). For gold, it is $25 per bar ($.25/ounce).
•If you take delivery, and want to send the silver back to the warehouse (sell it short), you would need to pay to have the bar assayed and/or recertified. This is not necessary if you just hold on to the warehouse receipt.
Margins
When you buy a long position or sell a short position, it is done on margin. So if you buy a long contract for 5,000 ounces of silver for June, 2010 at $20, the total value of the silver is $100,000. However, you would only be required to put down a small amount (perhaps $5,000). If the price of silver goes up, the money is deposited into your account. If the price of silver goes down, money is removed from your account, and when it gets below a certain amount, you are required to immediately come up with the more money (or else your position is sold).
Let's again assume that silver is $20/ounce, and you have $100,000 to spend. If you wanted to put all that money into physical silver (as opposed to futures), you could go out to a bullion store and spend $100,000 and get it today. Or, you could put down a small amount ($5,000 in the example above), and then pay the other $95,000 when you received the delivery notice.
If you are looking to play the market, and think the price of silver is going to go up, you could instead buy 20 long contracts (100,000 ounces of silver worth $2M) for that $100,000. If silver goes up $1, you would make $100,000, and double your money! If silver goes down $1, though, it wipes out your entire investment, and you would be required to put up another $100,000 to keep the position (or else it would be liquidated, or sold).
This leverage can obviously be very lucrative, or very dangerous (if you are not careful).
All About the Gold and Silver Futures Market
part 3 (rest at link at bottom)
Delivery Notices
A short seller is required to either close out his position by buying an offsetting long position, or deliver the silver. This is done by issuing a delivery notice ("Notice of Intention to Deliver"). COMEX then decides which long will be assigned the delivery (whoever bought their long position first), and sends an Assignment Notification (to the long and short), and the long must then accept and pay for a warehouse receipt (which they can pay to keep stored at the warehouse, or pay to have physical delivery).
COMEX has reports on how many delivery notices were generated each day, month, and year. The reports show which firms had clients issue the notices (shorts delivering the silver), and which stopped the notices (had clients receiving the silver).
Is a Long Guaranteed to Receive Silver?
Yes. Some people are confused about this, as COMEX doesn't make it clear to people who aren't active in futures. Someone active in futures knows that a futures contract is exactly that – a contract. It is a contract to buy or sell a specific amount of metal at a specific month in the future at a specific price.
The confusion arises because the short gets to decide when they deliver the silver – either at the beginning of the month, the middle, or the end. A long cannot initiate the process. However, the short must initiate the process at some point during the month – they are required to do so by their contract.
Another point that confuses novices is when they read that when a short gives a Delivery Notice, COMEX will assign it to the long that got their position earliest. This makes it sound like some longs won't be assigned delivery. But, for every long there is a short, so it just means that earlier purchasers of long positions will get delivery earlier in the month; those that got their positions more recently may have to wait closer to the end of the month. But all longs will be assigned a delivery, unless they buy an offsetting short position.
The final piece of the puzzle is what happens if the short does not deliver the silver? In this case, the Clearing Member (the firm that the short's contract went through) is required to deliver the silver (per 7B02). If they cannot, COMEX rules state that COMEX will not be liable for more than the value of the metal at the time of default (per 7B14), and only if they are notified within 60 minutes. However, we are not aware of instances that this has happened, and the person to receive the silver was not fairly compensated. If there were such a default, it would seriously damage the reputation of the COMEX, and could possibly disrupt the silver market, so it would be avoided at all costs. And, a long in theory would be able to sue the short and the Clearing Member (and probably COMEX, although they would be better protected).
Can you be Forced to Take or Make Delivery?
Yes and no. Specifically, futures contracts are exactly that – contracts to buy or sell something in the future. So if you buy a long contract, you are obligated to take delivery; if you sell a short contract, you are obligated to deliver the silver. But, if you do not want to, you can offset your contract (e.g. sell short if you have a long contract), which gets rid of your obligation.
http://about.ag/futures.htm
Much moar to this story and space dictates it can't be told even in a few panels.
and that my fren will be a GLORIOUS day!
Italian economy minister expects growth to pick up in H2: TV interview
MILAN (Reuters) - Economy Minister Giovanni Tria expects Italy’s growth to pick up in the second half of 2019 as government measures to revive a virtually stagnant economy take effect.
Italian gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent in the third and fourth quarters of last year, putting the euro zone’s third largest economy into a technical recession of two straight quarters of declining GDP.
But an unexpected rise in industrial output in February suggested Italy may already have exited the shallow recession it fell into, economists said.
Tria said on Sunday in an interview with state TV Rai that measures Rome is taking to support the economy would hopefully have a “positive although limited” impact on GDP growth rate, which the government last week cut to an estimated 0.2 percent for 2019.
“This implies a sustained growth as soon as from the second half of the year,” he said.
Growth will be lifted in the second half of the year by a stimulus package that includes tax breaks on investments, lower property taxes on factories and warehouses, and simplified procedures for public tenders, the government said.
Without this so-called “growth decree” GDP would have risen 0.1 percent this year, it estimated.
The government currently expects GDP growth to strengthen next year to 0.8 percent.
Tria reiterated on Sunday that the government ruled out a budget correction for this year, as well as a wealth tax.
This would “hit at heart the savings of Italian people and have a destructive impact on growth,” he said.
The government will update its targets again in September, when it will have to find a way to avoid some 23 billion euros ($26 billion) of hikes in sales tax scheduled to take effect in 2020, but which the ruling parties have promised to scrap.
($1 = 0.88 euros)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-economy-tria-idUSKCN1RQ0LH
she got hairy bewbs
they have done that. Look at where it was in January.
What moar do you want? This is pinning it on them because they have driven it higher.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DJI
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