Chances of a conventional anti-ship missile getting through the multiple rings of defenses for an aircraft carrier? Not great, but possible.
Chances of a hypersonic missile getting through the same defenses? Better.
Chances of a torpedo attack on an aircraft carrier? Better, but the likelihood of loss of the platform (sub) is nearly significant.
Chances that a single missile or torp takes out a carrier? Not 50/50. Would either need a nuke or a strike timed to catch the carrier in refueling/rearming operations when explosives/combustibles are vulnerable.
Chances that ANY strike (missile or torp) which successfully penetrates the outer rings and gets within 10 miles of a carrier isn't suddenly attracted to a lesser value ship? Greater than 60%. MIJI.
That's why escort vessels are called "torpedo-catchers." Our job, if necessary, is to die to save the carrier.
Hava nise dey.