dChan
Anonymous ID: 2a791e May 12, 2019, 9:19 a.m. No.6479980   🗄️.is đź”—kun

Market Reality Check-Op-ed

() and bold are addition's

 

And then The Never Ending Market Rally ended. With a tweet no less(not really-this is disingenuous imo as it continually blame's POTUS for several decade's of cheap easy money and does not highlight the utter failure of the system to apply and enforce it's own rule's-add in that munchkins has been an abject FAILURE throughout the entire trade negotiation's too) and $VIX exploded 82% higher just days after $VIX futures net short positioning reached an all time high. Knuckleheads.

 

What Does the Volatility Index (VIX) Indicate

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of expected price fluctuations in the S&P 500 Index options over the next 30 days. The VIX, often termed as the "fear index," is calculated in real time by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

 

The key words in that description are expected and next 30 days. The predictive nature of the VIX makes it a measure of implied volatility, not one that is based off historical data or statistical analysis. The time period of the prediction also narrows the outlook to the near term.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/what-does-volatility-index-vix-indicate/

 

continued

Look, technicals matter greatly, but so do sentiment, the political, macro, and central banks, and the structural. It’s a complex web that can be very confusing and is challenging for market participants. Navigating it all is very tricky and I want to use this edition of the Weekly Market Brief to offer a reality check on markets but also share some key technical lessons as an educational tool to help others in making sense of everything we see unfold and how to identify short and long exposure risk/reward.

 

First some reality check points:

To re-iterate: The 2019 rally has not been driven by earnings growth:

See Cap #2

Not even close. If anything earnings growth was barely flat in Q1 and is regressive for Q2.

The rally has also not been driven by fund flaws.

See here:

Stock buyback binge: 2019 is setting a record pace.

 

U.S. companies are on pace to buy back more of their shares than they did during 2018's record binge, data shows, despite — or perhaps because of — mounting political opposition.

Why it matters: Companies are continuing to choose buying back their stock to reduce the number of shares outstanding and boost prices over investing in long-term capital and labor expenditures. Last year, companies spent more buying back their own stock than on capex for the first time since 2008, according to Citigroup.

https://www.axios.com/stock-buybacks-2018-2019-record-high-54f64348-bcd8-48c4-ae15-da2ef959dcb3.html

 

continued

I repeat: The 2019 rally has been inflated by 3 main pillars that have exacerbated the move beyond the technical oversold readings off of the December lows:

 

1). The central bank pivot with the Fed caving 180 degrees and serving again the Fed put on a platter.

lowering the discount rate at the last FOMC meeting showed that they care for themselves only.'

 

2).Record buybacks courtesy US tax cuts which have shown to be a largest source of equity demand in Q1.

See above referenced Axios article

 

3). Political jawboning on the side of the administration constantly aiming to tout a China deal and eager to influence markets at any sign of trouble or downside.

 

Let’s all acknowledge a simple key truth there: Without these three pillars markets would not be anywhere near these levels, and wouldn’t have reached all time highs so soon following the December crushing. Bulls may want raise price targets ever higher, as they always do, but any honest bull would acknowledge that without these 3 pillars of artificial support we wouldn’t be anywhere near current price levels. Price became exaggerated to the upside.

 

This last week we saw one of these pillars sway to the side and immediately markets got into trouble. For all of 2019 markets were promised (via constant jawboning) an imminent China deal.

Here’s another reality check: New highs, they’re gone. And without new highs, and in context with major wedge breaks, markets are suddenly confronted with the prospect of major topping patterns.

See cap #4

But no major moving averages have broken yet, in fact no major technical correction has, as of now, taken place. Last week’s pullback was aggressive and it was fast and, as a reality, produced short term oversold readings, hence upside risk continue to exist as well.

As absurd as the ramp appeared to many participants given the political backdrop it actually had a very solid technical foundation. Headlines can be triggers, but technicals paint their path and our task is to identify these paths and navigate through them as best possible be it on the long side or the short side.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-12/reality-check

This is a BASED nigga.

Anonymous ID: 2a791e May 12, 2019, 9:33 a.m. No.6480049   🗄️.is đź”—kun

Gunmen kill six in second church attack in Burkina Faso

 

OUAGADOUGOU (Reuters) - Gunmen killed six people including a priest outside a Catholic church in Burkina Faso on Sunday, a local official said, the second attack on Christians in two weeks in a nation increasingly overrun by jihadists.

 

Congregants were leaving church around 9 a.m. (0900 GMT) when about twenty men encircled them and shot six dead, Boucary Zongo, mayor of the northern town of Dablo where the attack took place, and a witness, told Reuters.

 

The attackers then burned the church, looted a pharmacy and some others stores, and left in vehicles, they said.

 

Burkina Faso has been beset by a rise in attacks in 2018 as groups with links to Islamic State and al Qaeda based in neighboring Mali seek to extend their influence over the porous borers of the Sahel, the arid scrubland south of the Sahara.

 

The government declared a state of emergency in several northern provinces bordering Mali in December because of deadly Islamist attacks.

 

But violence has only worsened since. Two French soldiers were killed in an operation to rescue four people taken hostage in Burkina last week, France said.

 

Roughly 55% to 60% of Burkina Faso’s population is Muslim, with up to a quarter Christian. The two groups generally live in peace and frequently intermarry.

 

Then in late April unidentified gunmen killed a pastor and five congregants at a Protestant church, also in the north, suggesting the violence was taking a religious turn.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-burkina-security/gunmen-kill-six-in-second-church-attack-in-burkina-faso-idUSKCN1SI0EI?il=0

Anonymous ID: 2a791e May 12, 2019, 10:09 a.m. No.6480232   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>0303

>>6480189

I saw it, and that is my opinion only. It's not a good look, again opinion only. Faggot goes to court for something on tuesday anyway. Been trying to get some friend's to come here and had to explain that shit-show and that on top of issue's they have with navigating-still do not see how this is so difficult but many have never heard of or used usenet. Not anything can be done about who does what, not anyone's call 'cept BO- I trust them so YMMV.