== UAE -Fujairah -> Gulf of Oman – Tanker "Sabotage" Incident Overview ==

Reports indicate that four commercial vessels have been targeted by ?acts of sabotage?, in UAE waters. The UAE is currently investigating the incident, and has stated that no casualties were incurred, however the vessels are reported to have sustained ?significant damage?, but remain watertight integrity. Officials at the Port of Fujairah have confirmed that the port remains operational. The suspected sabotage of the vessels has also not resulted in the spillage of chemicals or fuel. Further, currently unverified reporting has indicated that a small projectile munition of a currently unidentified variety was used as part of the attack.

The vessels in question are believed to have been of multiple nationalities, which indicates the threat present in this instance is against all commercial vessels in the area, and not just focused upon Saudi vessels as was the case within the BaM. Reporting indicates that two Saudi oil tankers were targeted, one of which was in transit to that Saudi oil port of Ras Tanura. The two Saudi tankers which were targeted have been identified as the vessels Amjad and Al Marzoqah. Amjad is currently reported to be anchored off Murbah, whilst Al Marzoqah has maintained its position anchored off Fujairah. The other two tankers believed to have been involved in the incident were the Dominican small product tanker Miraj, and the UAEsmall product tanker FNSA10.

It is of note that in the time immediately after the incident, the UAE was flooded with media reports linked to Russian and Iranian servers and social media accounts, which claimed explosions had took place on land at Fujairah?s port location, and seven to ten tankers were ?in flames?. The UAEhas described all of these claims, describing them as ?baseless?. The Iranian state-funded broadcaster Press TV has used the incident as an opportunity to speculate that there ?may be a link?with the ongoing conflict in Yemen.

In a wider press release on the 12th May, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps accused the US of engaging in psychological war, by sending their carrier strike group to the Gulf. The statement went on to state that where a USCarrier once presented a threat to Iran, this now presents undisclosed opportunities.

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Sauce: https://dryadglobal.com/product-home/incident_reports/

>>6488119

Dryad Analysis

Reports that the port area of Fujairah was targeted is highly unlikely. Satellite imagery taken of the port area on 12 May 19 at the time of the attacks show no damage to the port area. The highly irregular and apparently coordinated response of both Russian and Iranian linked media outlets would indicate that the narrative of the event was potentially more important than the incident itself. The media activity at the time of the incident was highly suspicious and targeted and not commensurate with any previous incident of this nature within this area. However, the tactic is well known to be associated with other regional players as a method of manipulating events towards foreign policy objectives. It is therefore assessed as highly likely the initial reporting around attacks within Fujairah was the result of a coordinated disinformation campaign, which may have been intended to coincide with the attack.

It should be noted that the incident is still developing and the full details are so far unknown. Although initial reports have signposted to an act of militancy is the origin of the sabotage, the condition of the vessels and reports from the vessels will be required to fully investigate the situation. If the result of militancy, it is a realistic possibility that Houthi militias could be involved, in part due to Press TV?s references to the Yemeni conflict, and the ongoing UAEsupport for Saudi-led forces in the conflict. However, it is assessed by Dryad that Houthi rebels do not hold the capability or intent to conduct sophisticated asymmetric operations of this nature in a location so far removed from their traditional operating environment and to do so would require a significant level of state involvement.

Therefore another reasonable course of action is that an Iranian sponsored proxy was behind the attack. What is emergingly clear is that Iran, with augmented support from Russia, is utilising the incident to discredit and panic the UAE, Saudi and create an atmosphere of confusion and instability throughout the area, likely in accordance with the foreign policy factors detailed above. The likelihood of the incident being state backed is increasingly likely, but cannot be fully confirmed yet. This hypothesis when framed against the coordinated statements made by the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps presents a realistic possibility that Iran has timed this event to coincide with the recent shift in US/Iranian relations, in attempt to show the USthat Iran has the capability to create a disrupted operating environment out with the usual threats to close the strait of Hormuz and that it will robustly assert itself within what it perceives as its sphere of interest.

However, reports that Iran or Iranian proxies were behind the attack must be tempered. A factor which would reduce the likelihood of Iranian involvement is that the Iranian-flagged tanker HappinessI, is fully laden at the Jeddah anchorage due to engine failure, and will require access to Fujairah at a later date. What is clear so far is how unclear clear this incident is, and the Saudi reticence to report the incident accurately within their own media channels, and the current failure to provide imagery evidence of the attack, raises important questions as to the nature of the attack. Because the attack, whether genuine or not, is such a discreet and unique event, it is assessed to be unlikely to signal a trend of increased threat towards commercial vessels in the region in the medium to long term. In the short to medium term, this latest event, may result in a disrupted operating environment. As yet it is unclear what the regional response will be. Potential activity, may be that Iran declares the region unstable and uses the incident to justify and increase in IRGC(N) activity. In addition the US may be forced into taking a more aggressive approach in order to protect its physical and diplomatic interests within the region which may also have an impact commercial operations. In terms of impacts to operations, it remains unlikely that the risk to safety of vessels and crew will increase significantly in the short term however delays to commercial operations and the potential for interactions with military / militia forces has increased.

Sauce: https://dryadglobal.com/product-home/incident_reports/

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>>6488128

Perhaps RPGs from small fast moving boat(s).