Anons, here is an intedasting article from the crap publication The Atlantic which reveals studies of the terrible track-record (over decades) of predictions by 'experts'. It is quite thorough.
In short it says experts ('hedgehogs') are horribly wrong on almost all their predictions because their views are confined to their specific fields of expertise.
The people who DO make accurate predictions ('foxes') however, are less deep but have a broader scope and are well-read. Not experts, but learners.
This was helpful to me. Explains some things. And I think the wide-scoped anons here on 8ch definitely fall in to the 'foxes' category.
It is a good read.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/