tyb
Morning Maker Report
Some headlines in Business and Finance
Facebook suspends app pre-installs on Huawei phones
Facebook Inc is no longer allowing pre-installation of its apps on Huawei phones, the latest blow for the Chinese tech giant as it struggles to keep its business afloat in the face of a U.S. ban on its purchase of American parts and software.
Customers who already have Huawei phones will still be able to use its apps and receive updates, Facebook told Reuters. But new Huawei phones will no longer be able to have Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram apps pre-installed.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-usa-facebook-exclusive/exclusive-facebook-suspends-app-pre-installs-on-huawei-phones-idUSKCN1T80D7
Treasury yields hold ground as traders brace for jobs report
U.S. economy is expected to have added 180,000 jobs in May
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-hold-ground-as-traders-brace-for-jobs-report-2019-06-07
Stock Rally Continues As Payrolls Loom
Global markets are set to end the week - barring a shock from today's nonfarm payrolls report - diametrically opposite from how they started it: with global market a sea of green, and the S&P on pace to close 100 points higher compared to where they started largely thanks to Powell's hint that the Fed is open to a rate cut, one which is almost priced in by the market for the June FOMC meeting.
And the reason yu have to is that you accelerated the yield curve implosion by lowering the discount rate and thus the system has to go on a buying spree-among themselves with T-notes- to keep the game going
US equity futures rose with European stocks ahead of a "critical" jobs report, while the dollar climbed following the recent rout and Treasury yields also nudged higher, after Mexican and U.S. officials held a second day of talks on trade and migration on Thursday, with markets rebounding on optimism a deal could be close, although it was unclear if Mexican pledges to curb migration flows were enough to persuade the Trump administration to postpone tariffs
As reported last night, Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the Mexican government had offered to send 6,000 members of the National Guard to secure its southern border with Guatemala. In a sign of a wider crackdown, the leftist administration of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said earlier that it blocked the bank accounts of 26 people for alleged links to human trafficking, while it detained on Wednesday at least 350 migrants crossing into Mexico and arrested two prominent migrant rights activists.
about time.
In terms of immediate catalysts, all eyes are on the U.S. jobs report in an hour looking for clues on the strength of the economy, after Powell signaled this week he’s open to easier policy as trade tensions persist, and as investors are pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut by September, Fed fund futures show.
you heard it here first.
In commodities, WTI and Brent prices are firmly in the green and recovering from a five-month low.
Crude had the biggest inventory gain in almost 30 years and it rallied like a drunken sailor in port-there must be some investigations into this as there is no reason it should have done this like it has.
US Event Calendar
'''8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est.
175,000, prior 263,000'''
8:30am: Unemployment Rate, est. 3.6%,
prior 3.6%
8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est.
0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 3.2%, prior 3.2%
8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All
Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.4;
8:30am: Labor Force Participation Rate,
prior 62.8%; Underemployment Rate, prior
7.3%
10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est.
-0.2%, prior 2.3%; Wholesale Inventories
MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $13.0b, prior
$10.3b
To the day ahead now, where data this morning includes April industrial production prints in Germany and France as well as trade data in the former. In the US we’ve got the aforementioned May employment report as well as April wholesale inventories and April consumer credit data. Away from that, the ECB’s Nowotny and Rimsevics are due to speak.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-07/powell-inspired-stock-rally-continues-payrolls-loom
https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?
>We are getting close to an arbitrage!
If they allow the mechanical process to occur.
But yea, its getting good.
Huge Payrolls Miss: Only 75,000 Jobs Added In May As Hourly Earnings Growth Slows
Cap# 2 shows how quickly the futures reacted to this-that they are not in negative and dropping moar is pretty good as the way these are calculated leave much to be desired.
With the market unsure how to trade today's payrolls number, with both a very strong and a very poor report likely to spark selling, we just got the verdict: at only 75,000 jobs created in May.
this was not only the worst print since the shocking 56,000 increase in jobs in February, but also 100,000 below the consensus number of 175,000. It was also below the lowest Wall Street forecast, and 4-sigma below consensus as not one of the 77 Wall Street analysts guessed a lower number.
they also were WAY behind the coming rate cut from FRB too.
The two-month revision subtracted a total of 75,000 jobs, as March was revised down from +189,000 to +153,000, and the change for April was revised down from +263,000 to +224,000, making it a net zero for the month and suggesting some serious deceleration in the labor market amid the trade war.
Of course, the slowdown is becoming increasingly clearer: monthly job gains have now averaged 164,000 in 2019, compared with an average gain of 223,000 per month in 2018.
Looking at today's report, private payrolls add 90,000 and government drops 15,000 amid declines in state and local education; broad-based weakness spans construction (+4,000), manufacturing (+3,000), retail (-7,600), health care and social assistance (+24,000, least in more than a year).
Adding to the slowdown, average hourly earnings also missed forecasts with just a 0.2% monthly gain (below the 0.3% expected) and a 3.1% annual rise, below the 3.2% consensus, and the smallest since September; production and nonsupervisory wages increase 3.4% for a fifth month.
this is yet another thing that needs to change-these use rolling averages based on activity from 10 years prior-it is wholly imperfect as a measure.
Separately, the underemployment rate fell to 7.1% as involuntary part-time workers drop 299,000, while participation holds steady.
See cap#3
This has always been better way to read the actualities of the labor market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-07/huge-payrolls-miss-only-75000-jobs-added-may-hourly-earnings-growth-slows
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures
PPT Drops China Trade Headline To Rescue Stocks After Dismal Jobs Data
Update: Having lost control of the bond market and noticed that 'bad news is no longer good news' in stocks after the dismal jobs data, it appears 'someone' thinks now is the opportune moment to drop a China trade headline:
*U.S. GIVES SOME CHINA PRODUCTS MORE TIME TO AVOID TARIFF HIKE
*U.S.: TARIFFS WON'T GO UP UNTIL JUNE 15 FOR SOME CHINA GOODS
And stocks soar…
futures are right back where they were prior to release of 50 minutes ago-POTUS PUT.
Bonds and Stocks are massively divergent.
Who owns most of these bonds?….the system-see FRB primary dealers.
Treasury yields are tumbling…10Y below 2.05%.
this was reflected in the chart on the report further up the bread…they knew this was coming.
The probability of a June rate-cut is now at 32% and 100% by year-end.
It was at 6% on monday morning-see cap for updated data from CME.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-07/stocks-dollar-bond-yields-tumble-after-dismal-jobs-data-rate-cut-odds-jump
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y
The data from the commerce department has been changed over a period of time. The clinton admin did a lot to change how it was done in the 90's. It uses rolling averages to calculate those numbers, so as to say over the lat 10 yrs if 10,000 jobs were created in construction then 10,000 jobs must have been created going forward.
The POTUS put is just a term loosely based on the fed 'put' when each time the mkts were dropping they suddenly whip-sawed back up to protect the owners of the system. Believe this strategy is being used against them now to expose the manipulative factor they had over the mkts in general.
that's how they kept the game going. But the data aspect of it from the department is what I am speaking to. But understand the correlation to the chambers. All part of it.
Huawei denies report that orders to key suppliers cut after U.S. blacklisting
Huawei Technologies Co Ltd has cut or canceled orders to major suppliers of components for its smartphones and telecom equipment following its U.S. blacklisting, the Nikkei reported, claims that were rejected by the Chinese firm.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) confirmed that orders from Huawei have declined after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a ban on the Chinese company on national security grounds, according to the report.
Huawei has also downgraded its forecast for total smartphone shipments in the second half of 2019 by “about 20% to 30%” from the previous estimate, the Nikkei reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
“Our global production levels are normal, with no notable adjustments in either direction,” a Huawei spokesman told Reuters on Thursday, adding there was “no change” to its smartphone sales target.
TSMC did not respond to a request for comment on the report. But it said at its annual general meeting on Wednesday that Washington’s move to ban U.S. companies from doing business with Huawei would have a short-term impact on the company, although it was upbeat on the outlook for this year.
The Trump administration in May added Huawei to a trade blacklist. The move put Huawei and 68 affiliates in more than two dozen countries on the Commerce Department’s so-called Entity List, a move that bans the company from buying parts and components from American firms without U.S. government approval.
Ever since, global tech companies have been cutting ties with the Chinese telecom giant and complying with the U.S. ban.
Alphabet Inc’s Google has suspended the transfer of some hardware, software and technical services to Huawei.
Optical components maker Lumentum Holdings Inc ceased all its shipments to Huawei, while U.S. chipmaker Qorvo Inc said it expects first-quarter revenue to take a $50 million hit due to a halt in shipments to the Chinese company.
Huawei is allowed to buy U.S. goods until Aug. 19 to maintain existing telecoms networks and provide software updates to its smartphones.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-usa-suppliers/huawei-denies-report-that-orders-to-key-suppliers-cut-after-u-s-blacklisting-idUSKCN1T623B
if they did then they get a cut of it too. Finanza law says they do, can't remember the % but it's not a small amount.
10% owner of Carvana-the same owner-sold $8.05m of shares-June 3-4
Here is a link to those sales.
https://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=1017608&tc=2&b=2
Carvana Co. is an e-commerce platform for buying used cars. On the Company’s platform, consumers can research and identify a vehicle, inspect it using its proprietary 360-degree vehicle imaging technology, obtain financing and warranty coverage, purchase the vehicle and schedule delivery or pick-up, all from their desktop or mobile devices. The Company’s transaction technologies and online platform transform a traditionally time consuming process by allowing customers to secure financing, complete a purchase and schedule delivery online.
Number of employees : 1 864 people.
https://www.marketscreener.com/CARVANA-CO-34658201/company/
from June 5th
Carvana : Expands Central Florida Presence
Carvana (NYSE: CVNA), a leading e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars, launched in two Florida markets today, offering as-soon-as-next-day vehicle delivery to Lakeland and North Port. In as little as 10 minutes, from the comfort of home or on the go via their mobile device, area residents can shop more than 15,000 vehicles on Carvana.com, finance, purchase, sell or trade their current vehicle to Carvana and schedule as soon-as-next-day vehicle delivery.
just broke out to the upside. Don't get too excited as it's just paper contracts. It's a good thing as it will draw attention to it. Almost waiting for the algo's to come in and arrest that rise.
those have been used quite a bit and many anons get fooled by them. glad to see he is fighting back.
There is one from 2009 done in the same way after the bailouts started coming in.