tyb
US Market Report
Dindu Nuffin…This had about a 1 in 4 chance of habbening and they left it alone. The need to keep control of the system vs. the need to
prop up the institutions that rely on it was certainly a factor. The July meeting is at 100% probability for a cut of of .25% virtually guaranteed and cuts of up to .75%
are now being priced in at the CME. Very low probability but that it's on the 'radar' suggests this could get good quickly.
They may play with this in the coming weeks to not show the hand, something similar habbened in the options markets prior to the '08 crash as the prices of puts (bets that equity's will go down) were intentionally kept cheap as to not give the game away. Expect similar with the CME data-I do.
The 10 year T-Note shit the bed upon release of the no rate change, this will further deteriorate as the system will ramp up the trading of these among themselves. The Fed Funds discount rate is almost .35% higher so they need to toss paper back and forth since its "cheaper" for them to do this.
This is a falling on sword moment…for them. Expect some shockwaves in Asian markets later(this could be muted if the PBOC prints again-they pretty much have to at this point)
Some Headlines
Airbus grabs China Airlines narrow-body jet order
Airbus unveiled an aircraft deal with Taiwan’s China Airlines on Wednesday, snatching the carrier’s medium-haul fleet renewal from Boeing a day after its U.S.
rival made a shock entry into the single-aisle fleet of British Airways owner IAG.
The European planemaker said China Airlines had signed a preliminary deal to buy 11 A321neo aircraft, worth about $1.4 billion at list prices, while leasing another 14.
Google parent Alphabet rejects shareholder plan to break up company
Google parent Alphabet Inc. faced a wave of critical proposals from activists and employees during its annual shareholder meeting Wednesday, including one to split up the
internet search and ad-selling giant before regulators break it into pieces. None of the handful of proposals was passed according to a preliminary tally, but they illustrate
rising discontent among some investors and the rank-and-file over the company on several fronts, such as sexual harassment risk management, inequitable employment practices, and backlash to Google’s search work in China. One proposal sought to put an employee representative on the board.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/google-parent-alphabet-rejects-shareholder-plan-to-break-up-company-2019-06-19
Dovish Fed Sparks Safe-Haven Scramble For Bonds & Bullion As Traders Dump Dollar
Powell: "There was not much support for cutting rates now at this meeting. It would be better to see more before moving."
How much moar will the market demand now? While 8 Fed members now see at least one cut in 2019, the median rate expectation did not change (not that dovish)…
your own data for the july meeting all but guarantees a cut with 100% probability-see cap#3-don't lie!
But 2020 median rate expectations did continue to slide. US equity markets trod water for most of the day until the FOMC statement, and even then did not surge as so many had hoped on Powell's dovishness.
guess you were not looking at NASDAQ-while not a surge that was pretty decent to keep that ramp into the close.
Stocks overall ended higher on the day… (thanks to a panic bid around 1540ET)-he he!
The S&P is less than 1% from record highs.
Thanks to a huge buying program that suddenly appeared…
hope you are figuring this out if you have not already, the higher this goes the more exposed the system is…PANIC.
Defensive stocks soared on the Fed statement and the initial cyclical spike faded..
all the sectors that were beaten down by "that" plan to weaken our country-coincidence?…there are NO coincidences.
Financials slumped into the red after The Fed.
they did not get what THEY wanted-the fixed income market will be a bloodbath shortly.
Investors rushed into gold as the dovish Fed statement struck, pushing the precious metal back above $1350 once again…
Finally, we note that this is only the 2nd time in Powell's 11 meetings that the S&P closed green on FOMC day..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-19/dovish-fed-sparks-safe-haven-scramble-bonds-bullion-traders-dump-dollar
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=^IXIC
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Novocure CEO sold $11.30m in shares-June 18
NovoCure Limited is a commercial-stage oncology company. The Company is engaged in developing a cancer treatment centered on a therapy called TTFields, the use of electric fields tuned to specific frequencies to disrupt solid tumor cancer cell division. Its TTFields delivery system is used for the treatment of glioblastoma (GBM) and to advance programs testing of TTFields in multiple solid tumor indications through its clinical pipeline. In addition to its clinical and commercial progress in GBM, it is planning or conducting clinical trials evaluating the use of TTFields in brain metastases, non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), pancreatic cancer, ovarian cancer and mesothelioma. TTFields are delivered through a portable, medical device. The complete delivery system, which is designed to allow patients to go about their daily activities while receiving continuous cancer treatment, includes a portable electric field generator, transducer arrays, rechargeable batteries and accessories.
Number of employees : 495 people.
https://www.marketscreener.com/NOVOCURE-LTD-24157014/company/
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1645113.htm
Bond guy, hurting now
First used with Ford in 1974.
This got a bad rap with Reagan's presidency, it will work if not stymied by endless regulations. It is a solid, logical approach and much needed.
We need to rebuild our infrastructure and the quicker we can do it and pay less taxes doing so..the better.
What is the Laffer Curve?
The Laffer Curve is a theory developed by supply-side economist Arthur Laffer to show the relationship between tax rates and the amount of tax revenue collected by governments. The curve is used to illustrate Laffer’s argument that sometimes cutting tax rates can increase total tax revenue.
Key Takeaways
The Laffer Curve describes the relationship between tax rates and total tax revenue, with an optimal tax rate that maximizes total government tax revenue.
If taxes are too high along the Laffer Curve, then they will discourage the taxed activities, such as work and investment, enough to actually reduce total tax revenue. In this case, cutting tax rates will both stimulate economic incentives and increase tax revenue.
The Laffer Curve was used as a basis for tax cuts in the 1980's with apparent success, but criticized on practical grounds on the basis of its simplistic assumptions, and on economic grounds that increasing government revenue might not always be optimal.
Understanding the Laffer Curve
The Laffer Curve is based on the economic idea that people will adjust their behavior in the face of the incentives created by income tax rates. Higher income tax rates decrease the incentive to work and invest compared lower rates. If this effect is large enough, it means that at some tax rate, and further increase in the rate will actually lead to decrease in total tax revenue. For every type of tax, there is a threshold rate above which the incentive to produce more diminishes, thereby reducing the amount of revenue the government receives.
At a 0% tax rate, tax revenue would obviously be zero. As tax rates increase from low levels, tax revenue collected by the also government increases. Eventually, if tax rates reached 100 percent, shown as the far right on the Laffer Curve, all people would choose not to work because everything they earned would go to the government. Therefore it is necessarily true that at some point in the range where tax revenue is positive, it must reach a maximum point. This is represented by T on the graph below. To the left of T an increase in tax rate raises more revenue than is lost to offsetting worker and investor behavior. Increasing rates beyond T* however would cause people not to work as much or not at all, thereby reducing total tax revenue.
Therefore at any tax rate to the right of T, a reduction in tax rate will actually increase total revenue. The shape of the Laffer Curve, and thus the location of T is dependent on worker and investor preferences for work, leisure, and income, as well as technology and other economic factors. Governments would like to be at point T because it is the point at which the government collects maximum amount of tax revenue while people continue to work hard. If the current tax rate is to the right of T, then lowering the tax rate will both stimulate economic growth by increasing incentives to work and invest, and increase government revenue because more work and investment means a larger tax base.
The Laffer Curve Explained
The first presentation of the Laffer Curve was performed on a paper napkin back in 1974 when its author was speaking with senior staff members of President Gerald Ford’s administration about a proposed tax rate increase in the midst of a period of economic malaise that had engulfed the country. At the time, most believed that an increase in tax rates would increase tax revenue.
Laffer further argued that the economic effects of reducing incentives to work and invest by raising tax rates would be damaging in the best of times and even worse in the midst of a stagnant economy. This theory, supply-side economics, later became a cornerstone of President Ronald Reagan’s economic policy, which resulted in one of the biggest tax cuts in history. During his time in office, annual federal government current tax receipts from $344 billion in 1980 to $550 billion in 1988, and the economy boomed.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laffercurve.asp
afternoon patriot
the higher the stock market goes the moar the lower yields drop. The debt becomes less desirable if stocks go up so the rate of return drops to reflect that. If you can generate a return with out locking up your money for a long period of time why wouldn't you?
Still need to fund gov't but the lower the yields go it will expose the system who have binged on debt for too long. It's moar complex but just know that higher stocks=lower yields, but the value of those bonds goes up. Also harder to sell when they are valued so high. This is why the china threats a few weeks ago that they were going to sell were hollow…no one to sell to. They have dropped a few but it will just devalue what they have if they try the nuclear option but that won't habben.
ty anon, u welcome and appreciate the feedback
so easy to understand yet hard to grasp. Gets a chance to really work now
germany first though. Been printing neg yield coupons for some time.
It's fuggen glorious to watch.
Douche bank gonna need a bigger boat!
that $50b is mouse nuts in grand scheme of what they call 'assets'
>Forex market is the largest market, cap average is 5.1 trillion a day, bond and equity market pale in comparison.
he 'aint lying
perhaps they chose to attach it to the poway event because of the host location. In the catalog