I think you are missing another couple components, here.
What if the CIA already lost control in Iran?
Iran has been a complete black hole since about a year ago in terms of media.
Trump never ordered a strike. This was all media posturing and propaganda. Someone was trying to jump the chain of command over POTUS. He never called a strike and therefore never actually called it off.
The Japanese crew reported flying objects that attacked the tanker. Drones - perhaps.
The Iranians then shot down one of our drones - by mistake, as the President said.
Someone wants us to interrupt whatever is going in within Iran at the moment.