Anonymous ID: dd2f8d Aug. 1, 2019, 10:05 p.m. No.7305688   🗄️.is 🔗kun

Letter from Dan Coats in Comey Tweet

(Known FF route)

I believe the letter is referring to this document:

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf

Global Trends 2025:

A Transformed World

Global Trends 2025:

A Transformed World

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, US Government Printing Office

Internet:

bookstore.gpo.gov

Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800;

Fax: (202) 512-2104; Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington DC 20402-0001

ISBN 978-0-16-081834-9

To view electronic version:

www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

November 2008 (Time Obama Won 1st time)

NIC 2008-003

We prepared

Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World

to stimulate strategic

thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where

they seem to be headed, and how they might interact. It uses scenarios to illustrate some

of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study (e.g., globalization,

demography, the rise of new powers, the decay of international institutions, climate

change, and the geopolitics of energy) may interact to generate challenges and

opportunities for future decisionmakers. The study as a whole is more a description of

the factors likely to shape events than a prediction of what will actually happen.

Many people contributed to the preparation of

Global Trends 2025

, but no one

contributed more than did Mathew Burrows. His intellectual gifts and managerial

abilities were critical to the production of this report and everyone involved owes him a

huge debt of gratitude. Mat’s own note of appreciation on the following page lists others

who made especially noteworthy contributions. Many others also made important

contributions. We could not have produced this edition of

Global Trends

without the

support of everyone who participated and we are deeply grateful for the partnerships and

the friendships that facilitated and resulted from this collaborative effort.

i

Contents

Page

Executive Summary

vi

Introduction: A Transformed World

More Change than Continuity

Alternative Futures

1

3

3

Chapter 1: The Globalizing Economy

Back to the Future

Growing Middle Class

State Capitalism: A Post-Democratic Marketplace Rising in the East?

Bumpy Ride in Correcting Current Global Imbalances

Multiple Financial Nodes

Diverging Development Models, but for How Long?

6

7

8

8

11

12

13

Chapter 2: The Demographics of Discord

Populations Growing, Declining, and Diversifying—at the Same Time

The Pensioner Boom: Challenges of Aging Populations

Persistent Youth Bulges

Changing Places: Migration, Urbanization, and Ethnic Shifts

Demographic Portraits: Russia, China, India, and Iran

18

19

21

21

23

24

Chapter 3: The New Players

Rising Heavyweights: China and India

Other Key Players

Up-and-Coming Powers

Global Scenario I: A World Without the West

Global Scenario II: October Surprise

 

Chapter 5: Growing Potential for Conflict

Terrorism: Good and Bad News

 

Global Scenario III: BRICs’ Bust-Up

 

Global Scenario IV: Politics is Not Always Local

 

iii

Textboxes:

The 2025 Global Landscape

Comparison Between

Mapping the Global Future:

Report of the Intelligence

Council’s 2020 Project

and

Global Trends 2025

:

A Transformed World

2

Long-Range Projections: A Cautionary Tale

5

Globalization at Risk with the 2008 Financial Crisis?

10

Science and Technology Leadership: A Test for the Emerging Powers

13

Latin America: Moderate Economic Growth, Continued Urban Violence

15

Women as Agents of Geopolitical Change

16

Higher Education Shaping the Global Landscape in 2025

17

The Impact of HIV/AIDS

23

Muslims in Western Europe

25

Timing is Everything

44

Winners and Losers in a Post-Petroleum World

46

Technology Breakthroughs by 2025

47

Two Climate Change Winners

52

Strategic Implications of an Opening Arctic

53

Sub-Saharan Africa: More Interactions with the World and More Troubled

56

A Non-nuclear Korea?

62

Middle East/North Africa: Economics Drives Change, but with Major Risk

of Turmoil

65

Energy Security

66

Another Use of Nuclear Weapons?

6

Why al-Qa’ida’s “Terrorist Wave” Might Be Breaking Up

The Changing Character of Conflict

7

End of Ideology?

73

Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic

7

Greater Regionalism—Plus or Minus for Global Governance?

83

Proliferating Identities and Growing Intolerance?

86

Future of Democracy: Backsliding More Likely than Another Wave

87

Anti-Americanism on the Wane?

95