tyb
Morning Market Report
Jobs numbers out and the futures were down about -50 before and then dropped to -102, on DOW. The drop continues on the cash (kek!) open this morning.
Thought it would have improved by now but this is the bumpy portion of the flight, ladies and gentlemen. Tray tables up and locked.
It's really not that bad but some of you have never seen a market puke it up, some of us have. This is pretty good for what is currenly affecting it imo.
Less than 1% down with all thi shit going on? If you are short tech you get some back today, and yesterday. Don't get greedy though. One headline and POOF-it's gone. Shorting has infinite loss potential so there's that.
U.S. stock indexes fell at open on Friday, weighed by tariff-sensitive technology stocks following a sharp escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, while a tepid domestic jobs growth in July reinforced fears of an economic slowdown.
These numbers are still very suspect as they continue to use rolling averages based on activity from prior 10 years.
This is a legacy of several past administrations cahnging them to suit the narrative they wanted to show.
Asian Stocks dropped quite a bit yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.6%, extending its selloff to a third day. While Japan’s Topix Index fell 2.2% after the country decided to remove South Korea from a list of trusted export destinations, Korea’s benchmark pared earlier losses and closed 1% lower.
The Hang Seng Index dropped to an almost two-month low as technology stocks tumbled. Materials and energy were the worst-performing sectors in the region, after crude prices had the steepest one-day drop in more than four years on Thursday.
That was followed on by European stocks tumbling 2% led by automakers and miners, posting their biggest drop of 2019 on Friday.
German bond yields hitting record lows of -0.503% and the entire German curve now trading below 0% with the German 30Y dropping below zero for the first time ever.
The October Fed funds rate futures have jumped to now fully price in a rate cut in September, compared with only around 60% before the tariff announcement. Another 25 basis point move is priced in by December.
That tracked the drop in 10-year U.S. Treasuries yields to 1.832% - the lowest since Nov. 8, 2016, the day Trump was elected president.
They are currently receiving some "love" yield-wise as out market digests the jobs numbers-these were basically as expected. Very choppy upwards movement on those.
the White House schedule for US President Trump showed that an announcement regarding EU trade is scheduled today at 1845BST, while reports later stated that US President Trump is to formally announce a deal to open up EU to more beef exports, according to sources familiar with the plans
In geopolitical news, North Korea conducted further short-range projectile launches early on Friday, which reports stated appeared to be a new type of missile.
Chevron Corp reported a 26.3% rise in quarterly profit on Friday, as higher production more than offset lower crude oil and natural gas prices and a rise in expenses.
The No. 2 U.S. oil and natural gas producer’s daily production of oil and gas rose 9.1% to 3.08 million barrels. Eventually the huge glut of oil supply will play on these refiner's but until then these are the 'results'.
Of course this sends oil prices up, Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday, regaining some ground after their biggest falls in years on U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports.-see cap#5
For a moar realistic read see Exxon-Mobil and the other oil and chemical processors:
Exxon Mobil Corp on Friday reported a 21% drop in quarterly profit, its third period in a row of weaker year-over-year results, as falling earnings in refining and chemicals offset improved oil production.
Exxon’s weaker results mirrored those at rivals Royal Dutch Shell, Equinor and Total SA. Shell posted its smallest profit in 30 months on weaker margins in chemicals, a loss in refining and tumbling natural gas prices.
Total also cited weaker natural gas and refining operations for earnings that fell 19% from a year ago, while Equinor’s profit fell 27% on weaker oil and gas prices.
Part 1/2
Part 2/2
Some Headlines
Multiple Jobholders Soar To Record High As Old Americans Can't Afford To Retire
While the headline payrolls number was solid and just as expected, if a more detailed read showed some red flags (downward revisions, rising wages only due to less hours worked), one aspect of today's jobs report that will likely become a major talking point for
Democrats and other critics of the Trump economy, is that the number of multiple-jobholders soared from 7.855 million in May, to 8.156 million in June, to a new all time of 8,389 million in July, a monthly increase of 233K and 591,000 higher in the past three months,
which was a clear indication that the jobs number was far weaker than the headline represents if one excludes all those workers who represented two jobs to the BLS' various surveys.
Yet even this number had its silver lining, because while the Establishment Survey's 164K increase was impressive, at the same time the BLS reported that the number of Full-Time workers soared by 291K, which together with June's 453K increase was a dramatic reversal to the trend so far in 2019, where 218K full time jobs had been lost in the January - May period.
At the same time part-time jobs rose by only 54K in July, sending the part-time total for the first half to -133K, with most of the improvement thanks to the June number.
However, in keeping with the theme that a record number of workers need more than one job to make ends meet, the BLS reported that the labor force participation rate for workers 55 and old surged to the highest level in 7 years.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-02/multiple-jobholders-soar-record-high-old-americans-cant-afford-retire
'''perfect example of why the entire gov't data release complex needs a complete and total overhaul-could write a program in one weekend to have better releases then this but it would all depend on getting a good, clean data source as well.
European bank chiefs tell ECB: low interest rates won’t fix Europe
Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam, speaking to CNBC following the bank’s second-quarter earnings report, said: “I am not a great fan of low interest rates, as a great believer in the importance of savings in the economy. Subsidies to debtors and penalties for savers, I think in the long term harms the economy.”
Credit Suisse beat analyst expectations for the second quarter, reporting a net income of 937 million Swiss Francs ($945 million) compared to 647 million Swiss francs a year before. Societe Generale Deputy CEO Philippe Heim told CNBC that the continuation of dovish ECB policy is “not good news.”
The French bank’s retail division saw a drop of 2.5% in net income from a year ago, but Societe Generale said it had achieved a “solid performance” amid the low rate environment.
Deutsche Bank was in a minority of banks to report weaker-than-expected earnings, posting a 3.15 billion euro loss for the second quarter amid a massive restructuring program announced last month.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/european-bank-chiefs-tell-ecb-low-interest-rates-wont-fix-europe.html
'''they are not wrong as it does penalize savers….what they are not saying is that it also helps them GREATLY with the ability to have awider spread on the debt they create. Also this is a veiled plea for the ECB (i.e BIS) to start the asset purchase programs they have been asking for.
Trade Deficit decreased to $55.2 Billion in June
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.2 billion in June, down $0.2 billion from $55.3 billion in May, revised.
June exports were $206.3 billion, $4.4 billion less than May exports. June imports were $261.5 billion, $4.6 billion less than May imports.
Exports and imports decreased in June. Exports are 25% above the pre-recession peak and down 2% compared to June 2018; imports are 13% above the pre-recession peak, and up 1% compared to June 2018.
In general, trade had been picking up, but both imports and exports have moved more sideways recently.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/08/trade-deficit-increased-to-552-billion.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI?p=^DJI
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/
Garmin Exec Chair sold $66.02m in shares-July 31-Aug 1
MAKE HIM STOP!!!
Still has PLENTY left. 15,931,982 still available.
https://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=1134100&tc=2&b=2
They are not attracting enough buyers so they drop. Plus our markets dropping so they do not have to raise the payoff to attract anyone as the equity peeps head towards those when they can't find it in stocks. It's a common correlation but it has not always been true.
it is complex and you have a great read on it anon. Many factors. Not just a minimum wage thing, it never is. They really need to revise the entire way they gather and report all of this.
It's so out-dated.
u welcome anon, appreciate the feedback
if you are the same anon from yesterday then tell your family to stay cool and don't worry. They got this. Get bumpy for sure but in the end it will all work out.
ran the bonds through Marsh & McLennan just prior to the first plane hitting. They then completed the transaction when the mkts re-opened a few days later. Paid off Dick Grasso $50m on his retirement to facilitate it all.
been on a few of those plane rides, not at 40k feet but as a result I always put the belt on the entire time.
have some old photos that suggest that too. Some of the shit they try to pass off is pretty funny. Not saying it's that particular pic but wow they think people are stupid. Almost like the pics with the huge fish etc. Not that bad but getting there.