TYB ghost
I read financial stuff every morning because I’m an invested faggot, some of this was an interesting forecast too long to post all
What's ahead in the 2020s?
A key for investors will be how governments handle a wave of retirees.
The 2010s have proven surreal enough, showcasing everything from:
Financial repression1 (low to negative interest rates coupled with quantitative easing (QE)—or rather, "not QE") and a $13+ trillion mountain of negative-yielding debt
The potential for "helicopter drops"2 or even outright debt monetization3 (whereby the Fed essentially conjures money out of thin air)
Escalating friction between the 2 biggest economies (and, arguably, military powers) in the world
>>The storm brewing ahead of a stranger-than-fiction US presidential campaign
^^^KEKED me up
The silver tsunami
The UN publishes population data back only to 1950, but my guess is that the world has never seen a demographic wave like the one we're in now. To give some context, the slowdown in labor force growth currently underway affects mainly the US, Europe, Japan, and China. While those 4 regions represent only about 31% of the world's population, they make up 62% of world GDP and 69% of the world's equity-market capitalization.
And this has been a very long wave. The 5-year annualized growth rate of the world's total labor force peaked in 1985 at +2.3%. In 2019, that stat sits at around +1.0%, and by 2055 the global labor growth rate is expected to have dwindled to just +0.2%.
Looking at just the US, Europe, Japan, and China, the labor growth rate also peaked in 1985 (+2.2%) and has since dropped an average 6 or 7 basis points per year. The mean labor growth rate for these 4 major regions recently dropped to zero—and by 2055 is projected to have sunk to about -1.0%.
A secular surge that affects two-thirds of the global economy is not something I want to bet against, especially considering that labor force growth is 1 of the 2 main drivers of potential GDP (the other being productivity growth).
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/markets-sectors/market-outlook-for-2020s?ccsource=email_weekly
Not likely to ever try, insurmountable odds against the house.