Anonymous ID: 4f3997 March 21, 2018, 8:51 p.m. No.751214   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>1264

>>750706

Econfag

 

The trade-war/tariff conversation will be a win for the United States. Trump isn't starting a trade war. He is using tariff's to set the state to negotiate trade agreements. China has a 500+ billion dollar trade surplus with the US. Any tariff we place on chinese goods will have a significantly larger impact than any Tarrif they place on american goods. Imagine this simple example: America bans all chinese imports and china counters by banning all american imports. China's economy takes a 500 billion dollar larger hit than the US. There are more complicated ways to model this, for specific industries, but this argument holds water for all economies of similar size. The american trade war gun is bigger than anyone else in the worlds and it can be leveraged into strong and enforceable bilateral trade agreements that advantage american exporters. When you are the biggest dick on the block, multilateral trade agreements are a bad deal, they erode your advantage. The WTO is about geopolitics not trade and once you let someone in, its no longer a geopolitical weapon than can be used against non-members.

 

The idea that free trade is universally good is flawed. It is true that free trade maximizes aggregate surplus utility for the entire world, but it is not the solution to max surplus utility for each individual participant. A nations that have very large economies and nations that have highly inelastic exports can generate more greater individual surplus utility by engaging in bilateral trade agreements enforced by the threat of a retaliatory trade war for noncompliance.

 

Regarding interest rates, are you suggesting rates are too high now? Should the Fed engage in open market operations and buy US treasury debt until rates are negative? I don't know why you are invoking the great depression.