Could tension between the US and Iran spark World War 3?

By Stan Grant

Updated about 8 hours ago

Donald Trump stands during the playing of the national anthem, December 14, 2019.

Photo: Donald Trump has assassinated — he argues justifiably — an Iranian military leader and national hero and Iran has threatened revenge. (Reuters: Tom Brenner)

Related Story: US not planning Iraq troop withdrawal despite leaked letter's claims

Related Story: Trump goaded as millions attend funeral of Iranian top general Soleimani

Related Story: 'Iran has to respond': What might happen in a US-Iran war?

Related Story: 'Vigorous revenge' vowed against US after it kills head of elite Quds Force in air strike

Related Story: America and Iran are teetering on the brink of war. This is why they hate each other

Our age is cursed by hyperbole, hysteria and exaggeration. Blame it on social media and the 24/7 news cycle, where one extreme comment follows another.

So it has been with the America-Iran stand off. It has already generated a Twitter hashtag: #WorldWarThree.

Ludicrous? Well, yes if you consider that by any measure Iran is dwarfed by the United States.

Its population is a quarter the size of America's, its economy is barely 2 per cent as large. Its outdated weapons are no match for the most powerful military force the world has ever known.

Yet Hillary Mann Leverett, a former senior US National Security Council official, told me on Al Jazeera this past week that in Iran the United States faces its greatest adversary since World War II.

She's ignoring the nuclear-armed Soviet Union of the Cold War and the current threat of China. But look more closely and she has a point.

Iran is more daunting than Ho Chi Minh's Viet Cong, or the Taliban, Al Qaeda or Islamic State.

Iran has a large military, a nuclear program, it is geographically crucial to the Middle East, it borders the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most crucial choke points — and it is resource rich.

Iran is the world's most dominant Shia Muslim power. Since seizing power in the 1979 revolution, Iran's clerical regime has withstood war, revolt and crippling economic sanctions.

Iran would not capitulate as quickly as Saddam's Iraq or Gaddafi's Libya. Anyway, its leaders are too shrewd to invite an Iraq-style US invasion with American troops rolling down the streets of Tehran.

That's not something that would appeal to America either.

Why America and Iran hate each other

They haven't had formal diplomatic relations for decades, and at times appear on the brink of war. But why?

Is America ready for another war?

A glance at history reminds us of the often fraught legacy of post-World War II American military adventurism: beating a retreat from Vietnam; the bodies of American soldiers dragged through Mogadishu's streets; fought to a standstill in Afghanistan (America's longest war); Libya divided with the government teetering at the onslaught of the warlord Khalifa Haftar (backed by Russia, among others).

One by one the dominoes have toppled in the Middle East since the Iraq war: the Arab spring, fallen dictators, the war in Syria, the emergence of Islamic State, millions homeless, countless dead, a flood of refugees.

US soldiers in battle with Taliban

Photo: Conflict in Afghanistan is now America's longest war. (Oleg Popov, file photo: Reuters)

Amid this upheaval Putin's Russia and Erdogan's Turkey have increased their power and influence. Iran and Saudi Arabia compete for dominance and fight a proxy war in Yemen.

Myriad insurgencies complicate the picture: forming and switching alliances, conquering and losing territory, their reach and ideology spreading far and wide.

In Africa, rebel groups have a foothold in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Somalia, Kenya, Sudan, the Central African Republic.

The likes of Al Shabab have proven resilient and adaptive. Despite heavy attack from African Union troops and American bombing, they can still strike in cities like Mogadishu and Nairobi. In parts of Somalia they operate as a quasi government.

You look up at a fireman as he raises his hands with open palms as stands in front of rubble and a cloud of smoke.

Photo: We still live in the shadow of 9/11. (Wikimedia Commons: US Navy / Preston Keres)

Bigger than bin Laden

The 21st century was only a year old when Osama bin Laden orchestrated the September 11 attacks on the US. We live still in their shadow.

A new decade has begun with the killing of Qassem Soleimani, a man revered in Iran, yet detested elsewhere.

It is a far more significant moment than the killing of bin Laden or IS leader Abu Bakhar al-Baghdadi.

They didn't belong to national governments. Soleimani was crucial to the Iranian regime.

… post too long

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/world-war-3-qassem-soleimani-trump-us-and-iran/11841254

Iran declares all US forces terrorists after Qassem Soleimani killing

Iran has vowed to avenge the killing of one its most powerful figures – Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani – and US President Donald Trump, in turn, has promised to retaliate in the event of any offensive.

India Today Web Desk

New Delhi

January 7, 2020

UPDATED: January 7, 2020 14:47 IST

Iranians attending a funeral procession for Major-General Qassem Soleimani, head of the elite Quds Force, and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who were killed in a drone strike at Baghdad airport, in Tehran, on January 6, 2020. (Photo: Reuters)

HIGHLIGHTS

Iran furious after Soleimani's killing in US drone strike

Vows revenge, calls Trump 'terrorist in a suit'

US promises to strike back in event of Iranian offensive

Iran has designated all US forces "terrorists" after an American drone strike killed one of its most powerful figures, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, last week, AFP reports.

The US operation, which killed several others, plunged the Middle East into turmoil and caused ties between Washington and Tehran to plummet even further.

Iran has vowed to avenge Soleimani's killing, and US President Donald Trump promised retaliation in the event of an Iranian attack.

One Iranian minister, Mohammad Javad Azari-Jahromi, called Trump a "terrorist in a suit".

Meanwhile, in Iraq, where the drone strike took place, the parliament asked US and other foreign troops to leave.

The US, on its part, has asked its citizens to leave Iraq.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, wept over Soleimani's casket on Monday; his prayers joined the wails of mourners who flooded Tehran's streets demanding retaliation.

Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani led the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. He was a regional power-broker considered more powerful than Iran's president and a popular man at home.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-declares-us-forces-terrorists-qassem-soleimani-killing-1634644-2020-01-07

Pentagon rejects Trump threat to hit Iranian cultural sites

The Pentagon on Monday distanced itself from President Donald Trump’s assertions that he would bomb Iranian cultural sites despite international prohibitions on such attacks.

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Associated Press

Washington

January 7, 2020

UPDATED: January 7, 2020 09:40 IST

Defense Secretary Mark Esper

The Pentagon on Monday distanced itself from President Donald Trump’s assertions that he would bomb Iranian cultural sites despite international prohibitions on such attacks.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the US will follow the laws of armed conflict. When asked if that ruled out targeting cultural sites, Esper said pointedly, That’s the laws of armed conflict.

The split between the president and his Pentagon chief came amid heightened tensions with Tehran following a US drone strike that killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force. Trump had twice warned that he would hit Iranian cultural sites if Tehran retaliates against the U.S.

Esper’s public comments reflected the private concerns of other defense and military officials, who cited legal prohibitions on attacks on civilian, cultural and religious sites, except under certain, threatening circumstances.

Trump first raised the prospect of targeting cultural sites in a tweet on Saturday and reiterated that view to reporters the next day.

We have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD, he tweeted.

His Twitter message caught administration officials off-guard and prompted an immediate outcry from legal scholars, national security experts and Democratic lawmakers. But the president stood by his threat the following day.

They’re allowed to kill our people. They’re allowed to torture and maim our people. They’re allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people, he told reporters traveling with him on Air Force One. And we’re not allowed to touch their cultural sites? It doesn’t work that way.

By international law, however, it does.

Specifically, the 1954 Hague Convention says nations must take all possible steps to protect cultural property and shall refrain from any act of hostility, directed against such property. It also says nations must not use cultural sites for any threatening purposes that would make such locations a military target.

The Pentagon has long had a list of potential targets both inside Iran as well as those associated with Iran throughout the Middle East. Those targets and war plans are routinely updated, including during the recent uptick in hostilities.

Officials won’t discuss the list, but it is certain to include an array of Iranian military sites and capabilities, including missile, air defense and command and control locations.

Any targets would go through a lengthy vetting process within the military and the Pentagon to determine that they are legal, appropriate and proportionate to any Iranian action. Only after that process is complete would a list of potential sites go before the president for approval.

Outside the Pentagon, Trump’s threats were met with condemnation.

It shows that he is somewhat deranged about this, said Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va. The pledge to attack cultural sites, likely, is a violation of international law.

Kaine said that all Trump is doing is escalating tensions and he seems to believe, I can strike you, but you can’t strike me.’ That’s not the way the world works. He added that Trump needs to confer with Congress.

The threats also drew reaction from the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York.

The targeting of sites of global cultural heritage is abhorrent to the collective values of our society, museum leaders said in a statement. At this challenging time, we must remind ourselves of the global importance of protecting cultural sites the objects and places by which individuals, communities, and nations connect to their history and heritage.

Ahead of Esper’s comments, other administration officials made similar efforts to distance themselves from Trump without directly contradicting him.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday that any U.S. military strikes inside Iran would be legal.

We’ll behave inside the system, Pompeo said. We always have and we always will.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-us-general-qasem-soleimani-pentagon-trump-1634563-2020-01-07

Body of Iranian commander Soleimani killed in US strike arrives for burial in southeast Iran

Reuters | Jan 6, 2020, 22:11 IST

1

Mourners attend a funeral ceremony for Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Tehran

DUBAI: The body of the senior Iranian military commander killed in a U.S. drone strike in Iraq last week has arrived in his home town of Kerman in southeast Iran for burial, the official IRNA news agency said on Tuesday.

State TV broadcast live images of thousands of people in the streets of the town, many of them dressed in black, to mourn Qassem Soleimani.

Soleimani was widely seen as Iran’s second most powerful figure behind Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 80, who wept in grief along with hundreds of thousands of mourners who thronged the streets of Tehran for Soleimani’s funeral on Monday.

Khamenei led prayers at the funeral in the Iranian capital, pausing as his voice cracked with emotion. Soleimani, 62, was a national hero even to many who do not consider themselves supporters of Iran’s clerical rulers.

He was killed leaving Baghdad airport last Friday.

Mourners packed the streets, chanting: “Death to America!” - a show of national unity after anti-government protests in November in which many demonstrators were killed.

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The crowd, which state media said numbered in the millions, recalled the masses gathered in 1989 for the funeral of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

The killing of Soleimani has prompted fears around the world of a broader regional conflict, as well as calls in the U.S. Congress for legislation to keep President Donald Trump from going to war against Iran.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/body-of-iranian-commander-soleimani-killed-in-us-strike-arrives-for-burial-in-southeast-iran/articleshow/73133111.cms

US issues travel alert for Israel, Palestine

"Out of an abundance of caution, the Embassy strongly encourages US citizens to remain vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness, as security incidents, including rocket fire, often take place without warning," said the release.

IANS IANS

Washington Updated on: January 07, 2020 12:25 IST

US issues travel alert for Israel, Palestine

US issues travel alert for Israel, Palestine

The US government has issued a travel advisory urging its citizens to stay alert while travelling in Israel and Palestine. The US embassy in Israel said in a statement on Monday that "heightened tension in the Middle East may result in security risks to US citizens abroad", cautioning American citizens against travelling to Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, reports Xinhua news agency.

"Out of an abundance of caution, the Embassy strongly encourages US citizens to remain vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness, as security incidents, including rocket fire, often take place without warning," said the release.

The travel alert came after the January 3 US drone attack that killed Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, that has led to outrage and revenge threats from Tehran.

Following the strike, the US embassy in Baghdad the same urged all US citizens to leave Iraq immediately.

Besides, the US embassy in Beirut also issued a security alert, warning citizens in Lebanon to exercise increased caution.

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/us-travel-alert-israel-palestine-577032

Hundreds arrested for deliberately starting Australia bushfires

Hundreds of Australians have been arrested for deliberately starting the devastating bushfires since September, that have so far claimed the lives of 25 people, it was reported on Tuesday.

IANS IANS

Canberra Published on: January 07, 2020 11:08 IST

Hundreds arrested for deliberately starting Australia bushfires

Image Source : AP

Hundreds arrested for deliberately starting Australia bushfires

Hundreds of Australians have been arrested for deliberately starting the devastating bushfires since September, that have so far claimed the lives of 25 people, it was reported on Tuesday. The Australian newspaper said in a report that the people were arrested in New South Wales (NSW), Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, the worst hit states, reports Xinhua news agency.

In NSW alone, 183 people have been charged or cautioned for bushfire-related offences since November, with 24 arrested for deliberately starting bushfires.

While in Victoria 43 were charged and in Queensland, where the fires were worst in November, 101 people have been arrested for deliberately starting fires, almost 70 per cent of whom were juveniles.

According to James Ogloff, the director of the Forensic Behavioural Science at Swinburne University, approximately 50 per cent of Australia's bushfires were started by arsonists.

"They're interested in seeing fire, interested in setting fire and quite often the information around how fires burn and accelerate excites them," he told News Corp.

The University of Melbourne's associate professor Janet Stanley said that arsonists, or "firebugs", were typically young males aged either 12 to 24 or 60 and older.

"There is no one profile, but generally they seem to have a background of disadvantage, a traumatic upbringing and often have endured neglect and abuse as a child," she said.

Brendon Sokaluk, a former volunteer firefighter, was sentenced to 17 years and nine months in jail for starting a 2009 bushfire in Victoria that killed 10 people on Black Saturday, one of Australia's worst bushfire events.

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/hundreds-arrested-for-deliberately-starting-australia-bushfires-577012

Chinese state media seizes on US killing of Iranian commander to paint Beijing as a force for stability

Official outlets such as People’s Daily and Xinhua have focused on the global wave of criticism of the US following the drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani last week

China wants to highlight its commitment to peace and international law

Simone McCarthy

Simone McCarthy

Published: 9:00pm, 7 Jan, 2020

Updated: 10:22pm, 7 Jan, 2020

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Qassem Soleimani’s coffin is carried through Tehran on Monday. Photo: DPAQassem Soleimani’s coffin is carried through Tehran on Monday. Photo: DPA

Qassem Soleimani’s coffin is carried through Tehran on Monday. Photo: DPA

As tensions in the Middle East flare following the killing of a top Iranian military commander, China’s state media is seizing the chance to contrast its conduct of foreign affairs with those of the United States.

The main official media outlets have focused on global criticisms of the US following Friday’s drone attack in Baghdad, which killed Major General Qassem Soleimani, and asked what consequences the US would face.

This coverage highlighted China’s commitment to peace and international law and placed China’s international profile in opposition to the US.

“The responsibility of a great power is not its own national priorities, nor is it militarisation, but to take practical actions to safeguard international fairness and justice,” said an online People’s Daily commentary.

“As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China will continue to work with all parties concerned to maintain peace and security in the Middle East and the Gulf region,” said the commentary, one of several articles along similar lines run by the party mouthpiece in recent days.

Comments made by leading top Chinese diplomats and spokespeople in recent days have also followed similar lines.

They joined other governments in calling for a de-escalation of tensions after the attack on Soleimani, which followed attacks by Iranian-backed militias on a US military base – killing an American contractor and wounding US and Iraqi troops – and the embassy in Baghdad.

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China promises ‘relentless efforts’ to save Iran nuclear deal after US drone strike on Qassem Soleimani

Foreign ministry says Tehran has ‘shown restraint’ even though it pulled out of international accord to restrict uranium enhancement after killing of senior commander

Beijing urges all parties to stay calm and seek political and diplomatic solutions after Donald Trump authorised Friday’s attack

Wendy Wu

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Published: 8:18pm, 6 Jan, 2020

Updated: 11:26pm, 6 Jan, 2020

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Iranian mourners carry a picture of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike on Friday. Photo: AFPIranian mourners carry a picture of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike on Friday. Photo: AFP

Iranian mourners carry a picture of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike on Friday. Photo: AFP

China said it will “take relentless efforts” to salvage the Iranian nuclear accord and reduce tensions in the Middle East after the killing of Qassem Soleimani in a US drone attack.

Tehran announced early on Monday that it would no longer abide by the uranium enrichment restrictions it agreed in 2015.

Iranian state media reported that the country’s nuclear programme will now be based solely on its “technical needs”, but it also said that the country would continue to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency and it could return to the deal if sanctions are lifted and its interests are respected.

Geng Shuang, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, told a daily press conference on Monday that Iran had been forced to end its commitment due to external factors but had showed restraint and a willingness to implement the deal so it “does not violate its [non-proliferation] obligations”.

The deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is “an important pillar” for global nuclear non-proliferation and peace and stability for the Middle East, Geng said.

He also called for all sides in the deal to remain calm and to “stick to political and diplomatic solutions” to avoid further escalation.

“The global community should bear in mind the general and long-term picture, firmly maintain the deal and push for the de-escalation of the Iran nuclear and Middle East situation,” Geng said.

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Trade war: China’s refusal to lift grain quotas make Trump’s phase one import demands ‘more difficult’

China will not raise its quotas for the import of grains, according to vice agriculture and rural affairs minister Han Jun, raising the prospect of a stand-off with the US

Analysts suggest that while corn, rice and wheat were only likely to make up a small part of farm good purchases, the refusal to budge makes it more challenging

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In 2017, China imported US$900 million worth of corn, with just US$200 million coming from the US. Photo: ReutersIn 2017, China imported US$900 million worth of corn, with just US$200 million coming from the US. Photo: Reuters

In 2017, China imported US$900 million worth of corn, with just US$200 million coming from the US. Photo: Reuters

China will not increase its grain import quotas to meet demands from the United States included in the pending phase one trade deal, a key member of Beijing’s negotiating team said, with analysts suggesting that this makes it “more difficult” to buy the requisite amount of American farm goods.

The US has claimed that as part of the deal – likely to be signed on January 15

– China will buy an additional US$80 billion in US agricultural goods over two years.

Some amount of this would likely be composed of corn, rice and wheat, however, China has not yet confirmed the figures, only saying it would import those with “good quality and market competitiveness”.

Despite opening the soybean market to the rest of the world, China still uses a tariff rate quota system for rice, wheat and corn, the staple grains in the world’s most populous country.

This is a global quota. We will not adjust it for a specific single country Han Jun

“This is a global quota. We will not adjust it for a specific single country,” said Han Jun, vice-minister of agriculture and rural affairs at a forum in Beijing on Saturday, as reported by Caixin on Tuesday.

While these crops were never likely to form the bulk of the deal,

a refusal to lift the quota would make the deal harder to achieve and also risks angering the US, which has long railed against China’s import quotas.

“I’ve always thought US$40 billion [per year] would be difficult. I don’t think it makes it dramatically more difficult, but it limits the options further if imports for wheat, corn and rice will still have hard quota limits,” said Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia commodity analyst at INTL FCStone.

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https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3044958/trade-war-chinas-refusal-lift-grain-quotas-make-trumps-phase