Negative Debt Pile Surges by $1.2 Trillion in Dash for Havens

The global rush for safer assets has fueled a huge jump in the world’s stockpile of negative-yielding bonds, snapping months of decline in the value of subzero debt.

The pool of securities with a yield below zero surged by $1.16 trillion last week, the largest weekly increase since at least 2016 when Bloomberg began tracking the data daily. Another injection looked certain on Monday, as investors worldwide ditched riskier assets and piled into bonds amid mounting fears over a deadly virus spreading from China. It all threatens to reignite a debate about the phenomenon of bonds guaranteed to post losses for buy-and-hold investors. While the total fluctuated day-by-day, it shrank for four straight months through December on signs a slowdown in global growth may be bottoming out and that central banks may pause their easing cycle.

That means no immediate relief for markets that had started to feel the burden of negative yields lift. Last week brought the addition since mid-January to about $1.5 trillion and the pile overall to $12.4 trillion – the highest level in two months.

The resurgence is a potent reminder that the market distortions synonymous with loose monetary policies have not gone away. Their impact and effectiveness was one of the key topics at a gathering of world and business leaders in Davos last week. Among the voices, Cantor Fitzgerald LP President Anshu Jain said repercussions for insurers and pension funds “will be felt for years to come.” U.S. President Donald Trump wanted to know who was buying it all. Even with the handwringing at Davos and growing sub-zero stockpile, policy makers setting ultra-low rates have assured markets the easy money will keep flowing. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week policy must remain “highly accommodative” with inflation struggling to stay much above 1%, though she did reiterate the bank will keep looking at the impact of negative rates.

The risk-off mood sparked by the coronavirus and worries about its impact on companies and growth may yet prove temporary. The total of negative-yielding debt remains well below its high of more than $17 trillion in August, and many analysts expect it to stay that way.

https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2020-01-27/negative-debt-pile-surges-by-1-2-trillion-in-dash-for-havens