Rand Corp's assessment for Conflict with China 2015/2025. What's interesting is that supply chain and trade disruptions where anticipated to occur organically after conflict breaks out. The report also stresses that the economic severity may dictate PLA military options and committed intensity.

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1100/RR1140/RAND_RR1140.pdf