Yesterday’s Q drop PDF what country was true target.

Page 60 of the PDF that lists websites used to write the PDF

Many throw a 404 error code.

Except this one.

http://scip.gmu.edu/?s=Global+Forecasting+Model+of+Political+Instability

Some info lifted from it.

A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

Jack A. Goldstone, Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael B. Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and Mark Woodward

Supporting Data and Documentation

American Journal of Political Science 50.1; 190-208 (January 2010)

The PITF is funded by the Central Intelligence Agency. The PITF website is hosted by hosted by the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University and is provided as a public service. The views expressed herein are those of the Task Force and its individual members, and do not represent the views of the University or the US Government.

Political Instability Task Force

Up to 2012, Professor Goldstone and MOVE at Mason were home to the data and analysis of the Political Instability Task Force.The results of the Political Instability Task Force’s latest global forecasting model were presented in the January 2010 issue of the American Journal of Political Science. To obtain the article and supporting data, follow the links below:

GLOBAL

MODEL

(AJPS, 2010)

A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

Jack A. Goldstone, Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael B. Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and Mark Woodward Black and white, 19 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables, 2 appendices

Publisher: American Journal of Political Science, January 2010

Click the Title on the left to access the article; Click HERE for supporting documentation

Professor Goldstone left the Task Force in 2012. For subsequent data and analysis linked to PITF, please contact the Center for Systemic Peace, led by Dr. Monty Marshall.

These people need further research

Dig Dig Dig

>>8246065

Related link

http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/documents/PITF/PITF%20Global%20Forecasting%20Model%20Replication%20Script.do

PITF GLOBAL MODEL REPLICATION

*

*Variables used in the PITF global model:

*

*SFTPTV2A='Regime type'

*LOGIM='Infant Mortality'

*MACCAT='Bordering States with Major Civil or Ethnic Conflict (4+ vs. 0-3)'

*DISP4CAT='State-Led Discrimination (yes vs. no)'

*

*Variables used in Fearon & Laitin model:

*

*LOG_GDPC='Per capita income, logged'

*LOGTPOP='Population, logged'

*LOGMTN ='% Mountainous, logged'

*FEANCTIG ='Noncontiguous state (Yes vs. No)'

*FLOIL ='Oil export revenues from fossil fuels of total export (>=1/3 vs. <1/3 )'

*SFTPDUR2 ='Instability dummy (three-step change in Polity IV scale, Yes vs. No)'

*ETHHERF ='Ethnic fractionalization'

*RELHREL ='Religious fractionalization'

*ANOCRACY ='Anocracy dummy (-5<=POLX<=5 vs. POLX<-5)'

*DEMOCRACY ='Democracy dummy (POLX>5 vs. POLX<-5)'

*

*Indicators to be used for subseting:

*

*MISS_IND ='subset to 0 to restrict global model to same sample size as F/L'

*GLB_IND = 'Y to run model for All Problems'

*CWAR_IND = 'Y to run model for Civil War Onsets'

*REG_IND = 'Y to run model for Adverse Regime Change Onsets'

*

quietly tabulate sftptv2a, gen(sftptv2a)

label variable sftptv2a1 "Full autocracy"

label variable sftptv2a2 "Full democracy"

label variable sftptv2a3 "Partial autocracy"

label variable sftptv2a4 "Partial democracy with factionalism"

label variable sftptv2a5 "Partial democracy without factionalism"

label variable sftptv2a6 "Transition (-88)"

quietly tabulate byregn2, gen(byregn2_)

label variable byregn2_1 "AF"

label variable byregn2_2 "AS"

label variable byregn2_3 "EU"

label variable byregn2_4 "LA"

label variable byregn2_5 "ME"

label variable maccat "Armed conflict in 4+ bordering states"

label variable sftpcons "Instability onset indicator (DV)"

label variable logim "Infant mortality"

label variable disp4cat "State-led discrimination"

egen stratida = concat(year byregn2 group) if sample==1

egen stratidb = concat(year byregn2 group) if sample==2

egen stratidc = concat(year byregn2 group) if sample==3

label variable stratida "Stratum ID for Sample A"

label variable stratidb "Stratum ID for Sample B"

label variable stratidc "Stratum ID for Sample C"

**TABLE 1

**Full Problem Set

clogit sftpcons sftptv2a3 sftptv2a4 sftptv2a5 sftptv2a2 sftptv2a6 logim maccat disp4cat if sample1 & glb_ind"Y", group(stratida) or

clogit sftpcons sftptv2a3 sftptv2a4 sftptv2a5 sftptv2a2 sftptv2a6 logim maccat disp4cat if sample2 & glb_ind"Y", group(stratidb) or

clogit sftpcons sftptv2a3 sftptv2a4 sftptv2a5 sftptv2a2 sftptv2a6 logim maccat disp4cat if sample3 & glb_ind"Y", group(stratidc) or

**Civil War Onsets

clogit sftpcons sftptv2a3 sftptv2a4 sftptv2a5 sftptv2a2 sftptv2a6 logim maccat disp4cat if sample1 & cwar_ind"Y", group(stratida) or

clogit sftpcons sftptv2a3 sftptv2a4 sftptv2a5 sftptv2a2 sftptv2a6 logim maccat disp4cat if sample2 & cwar_ind"Y", group(stratidb) or

clogit sftpcons sftptv2a3 sftptv2a4 sftptv2a5 sftptv2a2 sftptv2a6 logim maccat disp4cat if sample3 & cwar_ind"Y", group(stratidc) or

**Adverse Regime Change Onsets

clogit sftpcons sftptv2a3 sftptv2a4 sftptv2a5 sftptv2a2 sftptv2a6 logim maccat disp4cat if sample1 & reg_ind"Y", group(stratida) or

clogit sftpcons sftptv2a3 sftptv2a4 sftptv2a5 sftptv2a2 sftptv2a6 logim maccat disp4cat if sample2 & reg_ind"Y", group(stratidb) or

clogit sftpcons sftptv2a3 sftptv2a4 sftptv2a5 sftptv2a2 sftptv2a6 logim maccat disp4cat if sample3 & reg_ind"Y", group(stratidc) or

**TABLE 3

**All Problems

****Fearon & Laitin Model

clogit sftpcons log_gdpc logtpop logmtn feanctig floil sftpdur2 ethherf relhrel anocracy democracy if sample1 & glb_ind"Y" & miss_ind==0, group(stratida) or

clogit sftpcons log_gdpc logtpop logmtn feanctig floil sftpdur2 ethherf relhrel anocracy democracy if sample2 & glb_ind"Y" & miss_ind==0, group(stratidb) or

clogit sftpcons log_gdpc logtpop logmtn feanctig floil sftpdur2 ethherf relhrel anocracy democracy if sample3 & glb_ind"Y" & miss_ind==0, group(stratidc) or

**Civil War