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Timeline of Failed Predictions (Part 1)
If there’s one thing I’ve learned recently it’s that people love predictions. Why this is the case I’m not sure. I think it’s partly because bad predictions can be really funny (i.e. with the passage of time they turn out to be hopelessly wrong) or because they are highly provocative (how could anyone intelligent possibly think such a thing?).
What I especially love about bad predictions and prophets of doom is that they both highlight the danger of extrapolating from a single trend or from seeing the world with a single lens. In other words they use critically false assumptions. They assume that things will always go on as they are or fail to foresee the impact of new events or innovations. There is also the problem of groupthink. As the writer JG Ballard once said: “If enough people predict something it won’t happen.”
There are obviously countless lists of failed predictions and especially regrettable quotations but most are just a jumble. A few people have grouped predictions by industry, which is quite interesting, but I’ve had a better idea.
Grouping predictions and comments chronologically is quite revealing about how our thinking has changed over time. It reveals assumptions, dominant paradigms and periods of intense technological change (the 1800s seem especially fruitful).
1500s
The end of the world etc. – Nostradamus, 1555. But lets face it, if you create 6,338 vague and usually undated prophecies you’ll eventually get something or other right. It’s like predicting that someone will die without telling them when. At least the Mayans gave us a date for the end of the world (2012 so get on with that to do list).
https://www.fastcompany.com/1706712/timeline-failed-predictions-part-1