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Printed matter 17/12051 v. 03. 01. 2013 - p.5 Section 2.3 - Risk analysis "Pandemic caused by Virus Modi-SARS":
The past has already shown that pathogens with novel properties that trigger a serious epidemic event can suddenly appear (e.g. SARS coronavirus .. models the hypothetical course of a pandemic in Germany, which is both "federally relevant" and plausible.
At the height of the first wave of illness after approx. 300 days, approx. 6 million people in Germany contract Modi-SARS. The health system is facing immense challenges that cannot be overcome …… p. 60 Section 2.2 The event begins in February in Asia, but is only recognized a few weeks later in its dimension / importance.
P. 58 u. 59 The incubation period, i.e. the time from the transmission of the virus to
a person until the first symptoms of the disease is usually three to five days, but can move in a period of two to 14 days. Almost all infected people also fall ill.
The symptoms are fever and dry cough, the majority of the patients have shortness of breath, changes in the lungs visible in X-rays, chills, nausea and muscle pain. Diarrhea, headache, rash (rash), dizziness, cramps and loss of appetite may also occur.
The mortality rate1 is high at 10% of those affected, and 50% among those over 65 years of age.
The duration of the disease also differs depending on the age, older patients need to be treated in the hospital for around three weeks, and treatment needs of up to 60 days.
The transmission takes place mainly via droplet infection, but since the virus can remain infectious for a few days on inanimate surfaces, smear infections are also possible. When the first symptoms appear, the infected people are contagious. There are NO drugs available for treatment, so treatment can only be symptomatic.
P.59 Section 2.1 The event occurs globally mainly in Asia, North America, Europe. The spread in Germany takes place via a trade fair city in northern Germany and a university city in southern Germany ….. p.64. Over the period of the first wave (day 1 to 411) a total of 29 million fall ill, in the course of the second wave (day 412 to 692) a total of 23 million and during the third wave (days 693 to 1052) a total of 26 million people in Germany … ab.S. 69 Restrictions on fundamental rights ..
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