Do the math.
COVID case growth is exponential?
6 days is a typical average doubling time across several epidemiological studies of COVID-19?
Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
Assume 2000 actual cases of COVID in the US in March 2020(lack of test kits makes official confirmed cases numbers lower than real numbers).
1 million real US cases of infection can be expected by end of April?
Greater then 4 million real cases can be expected by end of May 2020?
US Healthcare Systen has about 1 million beds for 330 million US population?
On average 65% of those beds are continuously occupied?
Disregard Chinese case & death numbers?
Does Beijing have an agenda to maintain political stability and economic activity?
Based on more credible Italian numbers, 10% of infection cases are serious enough to require hospitalization?
Recovery requires weeks?
Hospital bed availabilities will be very SLOW?
By Mid-May to early June, it can be expected all hospital beds in US will be filled?
Not all beds are suitable for quarantine to stop infection spreading within hospitals?
There are 12 million N95 maks in US national stockpile?
30 million surgical masks in US?
There are 18 million healthcare workers in US?
As COVID spreads, it will be irrespsonsible for US healthcare workers not to wear masks.
If each healthcare workers uses just one mask per day, the national stockpile depletes in a matter of days?
Does this explain POTUS recommendation that US population not buy masks?
Buying time for US manufacturing to ramp up?
Most masks come from China?
Can US manufacturing capability ramp up very fast to make masks?
Think shortages of masks.
Think shortages of hospital beds.
Shortages have compounding effects to the severity of infectious community spread?
Will healthcare workers becoming infected and drop out of the workforce for weeks?
Think drug shortages.
Think shortages of ventilators available for those in respiratory distress.
Think shortages of saline drips bags for IVs.
Get the big picture?
Is it reasonable to "buckle up" and "brace for impact"?
Have multiple respected epidemiologists estimated 20% to 70% of the world will become infected?
Given a 6-day doubling rate, can that translate to 2-6 billion real infected cases by late-summer 2020?
This is not hypothetical.
This is not fear mongering.
This is not worst-case scenario.
This is math.
This is historic reality.
Will warm weather stop community spread in the US?
Think Gaungdong.
Think Singapore.
Think Malaysia.
Think Australia.
Nothing can stop what is coming.
Nothing.
Will community spread rates be more severe in Third World countries with marginal healthcare systems?
Will all countries experience shortages of medical supplies and basic necessities simultaneously?
Don't panic.
Does panic do you or anyone else any good?
Be aware of difficult reality.
Take necessary precautions.
Prepare to ride out The Storm as best you can.
Practice good basic hygiene.
Wash your hands.
Take showers daily.
Change your clothes.
Wash your dirty clothes.
Don't touch your face.
Keep a responsible separation from others.
Avoid touching others.
Time frames of disruptions could be months?
Some disruption situations could last years?
Quarantines may become harshly enforced?
You didn't think we would get through this without the Big One, did you?
In God We Trust
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236152102310653952
https://twitter.com/trvrb
https://twitter.com/OurWorldInData
https://twitter.com/richardneher
https://twitter.com/nextstrain
https://nextstrain.org/ncov