About 80 percent of the people who get coronavirus have only mild symptoms. Some may not even realize they’re sick.
excerpt from article on PA hospitals preparing for coronavirus patients
Central Pennsylvania hospitals prep for coronavirus as big question looms: Will they have enough beds?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/central-pennsylvania-hospitals-prep-for-coronavirus-as-big-question-looms-will-they-have-enough-beds/ar-BB11kjiL
In central Pennsylvania, tents have risen outside numerous hospitals, ready to screen and isolate people if and when the coronavirus surges.
Other work, including expanding the bed supply, is going on out of sight to prepare for a possible spike in people sick with the coronavirus, according to checks with central Pennsylvania hospitals.
It’s all in response to a big unknown: Can hospitals handle the worst-case scenario? Or even the best-case?
York-based WellSpan Health has set up screening tents outside six hospitals, including York, Good Samaritan in Lebanon County, Ephrata Community in Lancaster County and Chambersburg hospital.
All were staffed and ready as of Tuesday afternoon, said spokesman Ryan Coyle. He had no details on demand and usage. Geisinger Holy Spirit also had a screening tent.
UPMC Pinnacle, which operates six hospitals in the Harrisburg region, is readying special locations to take samples from people who need to be tested for coronavirus. Opening dates haven’t been set, spokeswoman Kelly McCall said in an email.
Penn State Health Milton S. Hershey Medical Center is planning drive-thru testing. It’s developing an in-house coronavirus test and using telemedicine to screen for coronavirus, also known as COVID-19. “We anticipate to have additional information to share on drive-thru testing within the coming days,” spokeswoman Barb Schindo said in an email.
Central Pennsylvania hospitals contacted this week had yet to see any influx of people sick with possible coronavirus or worried they might be. Some said they were fielding plenty of questions about coronavirus.
“The community is very interested in the guidelines and availability of testing,” McCall said.
At this stage, they are busy planning for a potential surge in people needing hospital care.
A potential shortage of hospital beds has suddenly become a subject of great worry around the country. It comes as emerging data and estimates regarding the toll of coronavirus suggest a huge mismatch between the supply of hospital beds and the number of people who might need them.
About 80 percent of the people who get coronavirus have only mild symptoms. Some may not even realize they’re sick.
However, Dr. Raghavendra Tirupathi, a central Pennsylvania infectious disease specialist, expects ten percent of people who get coronavirus will become severely ill and need hospital care. Many, if not most, will need breathing ventilators and intensive care, according to Tirupathi, the medical director of Keystone Infectious Diseases and chair of infection prevention at WellSpan Chambersburg Hospital.
As of Tuesday, Tirupathi was aware of no model that has attempted to forecast a worst-case scenario specific to Pennsylvania.
However, Dr. Tom Frieden, the former head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, devised a national worst-case scenario in which half the population would get the coronavirus.
If that came true in Pennsylvania, with 10% of the stricken being severely ill, it would result in 640,000 people needing hospital care.
Pennsylvania has about 37,000 hospital beds, according to the Hospital and Health System Association of Pennsylvania. Hospitals have been cutting back on beds for years. They routinely operate at 70% or more of capacity, meaning a high proportion of beds are already full.
Frieden also produced a best-case scenario, in which only 10% of the population will get the coronavirus. Even then, 128,000 people in Pennsylvania would need hospital care.
It creates the potential of hospitals being stretched far past their breaking point, as is happening in Italy.
It’s why Gov. Tom Wolf has shut down non-essential businesses and gatherings, urging people to stay home as much as possible. The goal is to slow the spread of coronavirus so the serious illnesses are spread out, rather than coming all at once, as a spike. Public health officials call it “flattening the curve,” and say it’s critical to keeping the health care system from being overwhelmed.
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