Anonymous ID: 6b85ff April 13, 2020, 9:41 a.m. No.8778532   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>8563

>>8778043

He's right. There will be a rebound if we do it in mid-May, June, August, or whenever.

This isn't about totally smothering the spread of the virus to it burns out. It has already spread too far for that strategy to work. The only other way a pandemic ends is when a virus has made a sufficient percentage of the population immune that it can no longer spread effectively. The coronavirus has a R0 factor of about 2.2. That works out to a need of 55-60% of the population to be immune (infected and recovered). We are no where near that. If they lift he lockdown before that point is reached then there ''will'' be a resurgence. It's as sure as gravity. Ironically, the better the social distancing works that longer it will be needed.

This is what Trump should be explaining to the public. Right now the media is planting that idea that if there is any sort of flare-up when Trump calls for the lockdown to be lifted then he will have failed catastrophically. They know that this is not a realistic standard. We need the public to also understand this. Then what should be done is to lift the lockdown in a few small step so there are a few small waves of new infections as we build towards that 55-60% figure. The only measure of success is not overwhelming the hospitals.