Something Impossible Just Happened: A CLO Just Failed Its AAA Overcollateralization Test
Over the weekend, we reported that in its quest to bailout the richest Americans and the country's financial system, the Fed unleashed an unprecedented array of actions meant to backstop capital markets, going so far as buying investment grade, high yield bonds and even AAA-rated CLO bonds.
However, as we warned, it won't be enough, for two reasons: first, recall that the expanded Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) announced by the Fed last Thursday only buys AAA-rated bonds of CLOs, which after the coming tsunami of CLO downgrades is complete, will not only collapse in nominal size but will mean that any further attempts to stabilize the CLO space will require yet another Fed backstop of even riskier - i.e., rated AA and lower - structured products.
The second reason - one which Bloomberg called a "bigger and more ominous force at work that has investors bracing for the kind of pain they’ve never experienced in the decades that the [CLO] market has existed" - is that late on Friday, in the most draconian and widespread ratings action since the financial crisis, Moody's warned it may cut the ratings on $22 billion of U.S. collateralized loan obligations - a fifth of all such bonds it grades - as a result of the collapse in cash flows due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The ratings agency took action on 859 bonds from 358 CLOs that package leveraged loans into securities of varying degrees of risk and return. The step - which according to Bloomberg affects about 19% of Moody’s-rated CLOs that purchase broadly syndicated loans - comes as the underlying debt gets downgraded at a record pace.
The action followed a report by Moodys earlier in the week in which it reported that its "B3 Negative and lower list" soared to its highest tally ever — 311 companies. That tops a former peak of 291 companies, reached during the credit crisis of 2009 and the commodity-related downturn in April 2016. At 20.7% of the total rated spec-grade population, the list also shot up above its long-term average of 14.8%, and closing in on its all-time high of 26.1%. This spike is the result of the confluence of a coronavirus outbreak, plunging oil prices, and mounting recessionary conditions, which created severe and extensive credit shocks across many sectors, regions and markets, the effects of which are unprecedented.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/something-impossible-just-happened-clo-just-failed-its-aaa-overcollateralization-test