Pa. removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy
HARRISBURG — Twice in the last week, Pennsylvania’s official COVID-19 death count spiked. Then, on Thursday, the number plummeted. Officials from the state Department of Health provided several justifications for the fluctuations, citing technical issues, lengthy investigations, and the addition of “probable” deaths — those considered to be caused by the coronavirus but without confirmation from a test. But facing mounting questions about the accuracy of the count, officials on Thursday removed more than 200 probable deaths from the tally, further complicating the state’s accounting of the pandemic. Health Secretary Rachel Levine said the change was made in an effort to be transparent. “We realize that this category can be confusing, since it does change over time,” Levine said. “At times, there are things we need to review, and potentially revisit the way the data is being analyzed,” she said. “And this is one of those times.”
The coronavirus surge in Pennsylvania has posed major technical challenges for the Health Department, the clearinghouse for the data critical to make decisions about what policies to implement to keep people safe. In addition to inconsistencies around death counts, the department has struggled to attain complete and accurate demographic data for positive patients, as well as those who have been tested. At the same time, the state’s coroners — tasked with investigating suspicious deaths — have grown increasingly frustrated by the Health Department’s reluctance to seek their help. Some have said the department’s numbers did not match what coroners were seeing. Those concerns caught the attention of State Sen. Judy Ward (R., Blair), who is advocating for a bill that would give coroners a bigger role in the crisis. “There’s a discrepancy in the numbers,” Charles E. Kiessling Jr., president of the Pennsylvania Coroners Association and coroner in Lycoming County, said Thursday. “I’m not saying there’s something going on…. I’m not a conspiracy theory guy. But accuracy is important.” It’s a matter of public safety, Kiessling said.
The confusion began Sunday, when Pennsylvania raised its coronavirus death toll to 1,112 — an increase of 276 overnight. On Tuesday, the department reported another spike, from 1,204 to 1,564 deaths. In both cases, Levine said the surges reflected deaths that occurred days, even weeks, in the past. “These deaths did not happen overnight,” Levine said Sunday. The jump that day, first blamed on a computer glitch, was explained as a “reconciliation” of multiple reporting systems and the “culmination of that data-validating effort.” Levine also said the “significant increase” included “probable positive” COVID-19 deaths, as well as deaths confirmed with a test. On Tuesday, Levine reported 300 probable deaths in the day’s count but appeared to indicate the situation was new. “We will now be reporting probable deaths related to COVID-19 in addition to confirmed deaths,” she said. That same day, department spokesperson Nate Wardle told Spotlight PA some probable deaths had been included in the count for at least a week or maybe longer. Then, on Wednesday, Wardle backtracked, saying that although probable deaths had been added to the reporting systems as of April 13, the day before federal guidance changed, they weren’t included in the state’s official count until Tuesday. Wardle added that despite Levine’s public comments, none of the deaths reported Sunday were considered probable, meaning the first surge was due almost entirely to lags in reporting.
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html