JPMorgan ‘Volfefe Index’ Finds Trump Tweets Drive
Treasury Moves
By Tracy Alloway
May 4, 2020, 12:33 AM EDT
"The U.S. Treasury market is showing increased sensitivity to the tweets of President Donald Trump, with signs that algorithmic and high-speed traders are retooling models to take the social media posts into account, according to an analysis by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The bank created the “Volfefe Index,” a reference to the president’s mysterious covfefe tweet of 2017, to track the correlation between Treasury yields and Trump’s tweets. The sensitivity has since increased, with one measurement jumping by more than 60% since JPMorgan introduced the index in September, according to its analysts.
Volatility in the Treasury market linked to Trump’s tweets has surpassed that linked to traditional sources of monetary and economic policy announcements, as measured by the Baker, Bloom & Davis Policy Uncertainty Index, JPMorgan said.
“This intuitively fits the mood of the political moment, where policy decisions are frequently communicated via that channel with limited preliminary coverage or analysis in public media,” wrote interest-rate strategists led by Josh Younger."
moar:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/-volfefe-index-finds-trump-tweets-driving-u-s-treasury-moves