tyb
Oil Soars, Prompt WTI Contango Disappears As Chinese Oil Demand "Almost Back To Pre-Crisis Levels"
After plunging more than 20% in Q1 due to the economic shutdown from the coronavirus pandemic, Chinese oil demand is now "all but back to levels last seen before Beijing imposed a national lockdown to fight the coronavirus outbreak" Bloomberg reported citing people with inside knowledge of the country’s energy industry, who may or may not be long oil futures.
Gasoline and diesel are leading the recovery in China as commuters prefer the safety of their own cars, rather than using public transport, while jet-fuel demand has remained subdued.
The quick turnaround in China, the world’s second largest oil consumer behind only the U.S., has helped tighten the petroleum market sooner-than-expected, and the result is a sharp rally in West Texas Intermediate crude, which a month ago plunged into negative prices and last traded above $32 a barrel. Helping the impressive rebound in oil is the accelerating shutdown in US crude production, which as shown below is down by a record 1.5mmb/d in the past two months, helping reduce supply and firm prices.
Chinese consumption of gasoline and diesel has fully recovered as factories reopen and commuters drive rather than use public transport, according to the people, who are long crude asked not to be named because they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
The same "people" adds that while pinpointing the exact level of Chinese oil demand in real time is a difficult exercise, executives and traders who monitor the country’s consumption said it was at about 13 million barrels a day, just shy of the 13.4 million barrels a day of May 2019 and 13.7 million barrels a day of December 2019. The overall number would be higher were it not for jet-fuel demand, which is still running well below a year’s ago level, as a result of a continued slump in both domestic and international air travel.
Unlike the "unnamed people" who may or may not be long oil on Monday (before they dump it and change their mind), the International Energy Agency is far more pessimist about Chinese consumption. In a report last week, it predicted that the Asian giant will consume less oil every month for the rest of the year than it did during the same period of 2019.
To reach their optimistic conclusion, the "people" are likely looking at rush hour traffic data (provided publically by TomTom International) in multiple Chinese cities , which has surged in the last couple of weeks, in many cases running either at or even above year-ago levels, according to data from navigation company TomTom International BV. The traffic has particularly intensified in cities other than Beijing and Shanghai, which typically have more space for the drivers that are now using their cars to commute into work.
At the same time, diesel demand is also recovering strongly as Beijing encourages farmers to plant more to guarantee the country’s food security and industrial consumption recovers. The uptick in China’s gasoline and diesel consumption has prompted state and independently-owned refiners to crank up run rates to convert more crude oil into fuel. That means Chinese crude stockpiles are actually being drawn down. And as optimism returns to the oil market, and as prices soar, what was until a few weeks ago a super contango in the prompt Jun-July spread is now back to backwardation, which is making the storage of oil on tankers increasingly unprofitable.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-soars-prompt-wti-contango-disappears-chinese-oil-demand-almost-back-pre-crisis-levels
https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart
AZAZ0909 C-560 south from JBA
VENUS91 USAF C-32A departed JBA (this is one of two AC used for AF2)
VM767 C-560 also departed JBA and ne after a hold just east of NAS Pax River
WING26 V-560 left MacGuire AFB, NJ ne
VV700 G5 departed MacDill AFb, Tampa heading for JBA
STASH25 E-4B Nightwatch nw from Robins AFB, GA
VVJV829 P-8 Poseiden nw from NAS Jax-heading to NAS Whidbey Island
_169005 P-8 Poseiden heading back to NAS Jax from Myrtle Beach, SC low alt. runs
_169543 P-8 takes up it's place of Space Coast
Swedish AF SVF647 nw from Amman, Jordan
ATILA25 C-560 se departing Kuwait se
SHAFT70 Learjet C-21 departed Doha, Qatar nw heading for Kuwait
PerkinElmer denies report that it is being investigated in a Medicare fraud case
PerkinElmer Inc. PKI, -0.53% said Monday that it has not received any information, and is not aware of any wrongdoing, as implied by a Reuters report. The diagnostics and health services company also said it did not have any information that it or any of its personnel are being investigated by the government. The company's statement comes after Reuters reported, citing sources and documents reviewed by Reuters, that PerkinElmer faced a federal investigation into its role in an alleged Medicare fraud involving unnecessary genetic cancer tests. PerkinElmer acknowledged that it has received subpoenas, but they were regarding investigations into third parties. The company said it has fully cooperated with authorities.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/perkinelmer-denies-reuters-report-that-it-is-being-investigated-in-a-medicare-fraud-case-2020-05-18
morning B
good, a little slow this morning-late night (for me)in here and out with some frens earlier
was up so did a notes drop after the ghost last night
SAM632 G5 from Patrick AFB-Melbourne FL- nw an origin out of JBA earlier
ty for that.
if it's late it won't be me.
that just a function of a little too much drinkey and could not get to sleep.
everything good in yer 'hood?
92-9000 VIP 747 up from JBA and circling
probably just a maintenance flight
stuff still closed here but have seen some restaurants open with limited seating.
it's boiling, plenty of defiance in Ca now.
peeps had it with faggit newsome.
have haircuts for both and coming to house on weds.
good to hear he ditched that.
say hello from the nons