Boatfag Report
A quick look on the scope shows 4 possible targets with tracks that seem to correlate to the last known courses of the five Iranian tankers the Boatfag team has had under observation for the past few days. Cap shows these 4 tankers.
An analysis to generate the tankers' estimated positions was done a couple of days ago based on last known information. While it's an estimate based partly on guess-work (a little bit like doing ASW from a surface ship), those estimates are fairly solid assuming the target acts the way you expect it to act. In this case, we know two of the tankers took more southerly initial courses out of Gibraltar down the West African coast near the Canary Islands, and if they continue on that track they will have to take a bit more west-south-westerly track to make the run to Venezuela. That being said, they will probably be the later arrivals (if that is the case) due to distances traveled. The other three tankers were on a more directly southwesterly course to Venezuela when tracking was lost.
Assuming we're not being deked by Rouhani, his statement that the Iranian tankers are going "through the Carribean" and the "first should be arriving in Venezuelan territorial waters on Sunday'' mostly matches up with the estimate, with potentially the earliest pick up of their lead ship either later tonight or early tomorrow morning.
Assuming no changes in courses or speeds, the ships should arrive on the scope around Venezuela in the following order:
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Fortune (tonite or tomorrow)
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Forest (Tuesday)
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Petunia (Wed-Thur)
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Faxon (Wed-Thur)
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Clavel (Fri-Sat)
No guarantees that all of them will transit through the Windward Islands, it is possible that two of them will come in a more westerly course below Trinidad & Tobago.
WOULD LOVE TO HEAR IF ANY FELLOW BOATFAGS ARE GOING TO BE MONITORING THE SCOPE TONIGHT & TOMORROW. HOPEFULLY WE CAN COORDINATE COVERAGE.