I am leaning toward no 2, too.
Is there any way we can confirm Joe's whereabouts on the day before.
House Records, votes, speeches, ??
news reports for that day with his name in it?
Was he in DC and flew home on a prescheduoled flight as reported.
but then, it was also reported that he flew home after hearing the news, as if it was not prescheduled.
But then, if he came home every weekend, it may have been prescheduled.
I wonder if the night security guard is still alive?
Is he in the police report?