Boatfag Quick Update
PETUNIA has passed Grenada to the south and is heading due west to pass north of Juan Griego Island. She should be on that heading for another 18 hours or so before turning southwest to head to Puerto Cabello. Still has about 375 nm to go. She'll be anchored and pumping in about 30 hours or so, assuming nothing happens. See 1st cap
Now under observation is the unidentified tanker in brackets shown in cap 2. Betting that's FAXON. If coastal AIS performance holds true to past form, we won't get identification data until the tanker makes it into the area of the green box shown in the cap. That's about a 175nm run, so we should know in about 12 hours.
Finally, a quick discussion on ADAM JOSEPH, the US-flagged offshore supply vessel in the area below Grenada, which is the area the Iranian tankers have to transit. Previously foreign news reports claimed the AJ was there to snoop on the tankers. However, I question that now. AJ is stationary at an NCMA bouy, and has been for more than a day now. PETUNIA passed AJ well to the north, and the calculated Closest Point of Approach to AJ was 25 nm (that's 50 thousand yards!) AJ is not a big ship, and a close visual inspection at that distance not only requires hella optics, it also requires serious height of eye, meaning from a bridge that is very high off the water. This is due to the curvature of the earth. At 25 nm, it's doubtful AJ would see much more of PETUNIA than just the top of her superstructure. And while the IRGC undoubtedly has guards on board, they and their toys can hide out of sight while in the area. So, a visual observation doesn't make sense.
As for catching PETUNIA on radar, who cares? She can easily be tracked well enough with AIS to get any assault close enough to the ship to find her and get down to business.