That's an 80 percent increase. The CDC used a different computational method from what it's used before,
Profile: Deaths from flu on the rise
Date: 2003
"Profile: Deaths from flu on the rise." Morning Edition, 8 Jan. 2003
From: Morning Edition
Publisher: National Public Radio, Inc. (NPR)
BOB EDWARDS, host:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has released a new estimate of how many Americans are killed each year by the influenza virus. It's bad news, but flu researchers hope the new number will increase interest in the disease.
NPR's Joanne Silberner reports.
JOANNE SILBERNER reporting:
It's hard to count the number of people who die because of the influenza virus. Often the cause of death is something that started out as the flu, but developed into another condition, like a heart problem or pneumonia. The numbers also vary greatly from year to year, so it took a lot of computation for Keiji Fukuda and his colleagues at the CDC to discover that there was a significant change in the impact of the flu in the 1990s.
Mr. KEIJI FUKUDA (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention):
When you look at estimates coming out of the 1970s and 1980s, we estimated about 20,000 people on average died from influenza-related complications. In the 1990s, we see that this figure has really jumped up considerably to about 36,000 people per year.
SILBERNER:
That's an 80 percent increase. The CDC used a different computational method from what it's used before,
but Fukuda says the increase is real and has two possible causes. One is that the number of people older than 65 is growing larger.
Mr. FUKUDA: This is a group of people that is particularly vulnerable to influenza, and this is a group of people in whom the risk of death from flu is higher than in many other groups.
SILBERNER: That's even with the vaccine, which is less effective in older people.
The second possible reason is the type of virus that predominated in the 1990s. It causes more serious illness and more deaths than other flu viruses. Flu expert Paul Glezen of Baylor College of Medicine says the trend of increased deaths could be reversed.
Mr. PAUL GLEZEN (Baylor College of Medicine): I think it can be brought down, but I think we have to be much more diligent in delivering vaccine to the vulnerable people, and perhaps we have to think about different strategies for controlling influenza epidemics.
SILBERNER: Right now the CDC recommends vaccination for people over 50, very young children and people with health conditions. Glezen would like to see more schoolchildren vaccinated as a way of stopping transmission to older people. In the last two years, there have been shortages of vaccines. This year there's more supply than demand. Glezen says people seem to have lost interest after the previous shortages, but maybe the new data will inspire them.
Mr. GLEZEN: It's still not too late. I'm hoping that people will use this as a reminder to go out and get flu vaccine.
SILBERNER: This winter, as in recent years, the flu is making a late start. It's in only a handful of states so far. In Texas, where Paul Glezen is, some schools had to temporarily close in December. But cases for the most part have been in the northern part of the state. Glezen says he expects to see a lot more of the flu before the winter is over. Joanne Silberner, NPR News, Washington.
EDWARDS: The time is 29 minutes past the hour.
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