Excluded from Netanyahu’s annexation plans, military must somehow prepare anyway
‘The army hasn’t seen the maps!’: For one of the first times in history, the IDF is out of the loop on a move that could radically affect central aspects of the country’s security
With less than a month to go before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he intends to annex portions of the West Bank — a move with potentially immense security and geopolitical ramifications — the country’s security forces remain overwhelmingly in the dark about what exactly the government plans to do.
A verbal statement that does not actually apply Israeli civil law over the territory and thus does not have any real-world implications may result in only limited reactions by Palestinians, but full annexation of all Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley — which Netanyahu has indicated he is considering — would likely result in a far more violent and widespread immediate response. The annexation of only the Maale Adumim settlement or Etzion bloc — both of which are almost guaranteed to remain in Israeli control under any political resolution with the Palestinians — could also result in a potentially more muted response by both Palestinians and the rest of the world.
Without knowing which of these — or if anything at all — will happen next month, the Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security service cannot fully plan accordingly and must instead anticipate a broad range of potential immediate reactions to the move by Palestinians, from minor rioting, to widespread terror attacks, all the way up to a full-scale uprising.
in the Gaza Strip, at the Kirya headquarters in Tel Aviv, on November 12, 2019. (Miriam Alster/Flash90)
With less than a month to go before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he intends to annex portions of the West Bank — a move with potentially immense security and geopolitical ramifications — the country’s security forces remain overwhelmingly in the dark about what exactly the government plans to do.
A verbal statement that does not actually apply Israeli civil law over the territory and thus does not have any real-world implications may result in only limited reactions by Palestinians, but full annexation of all Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley — which Netanyahu has indicated he is considering — would likely result in a far more violent and widespread immediate response. The annexation of only the Maale Adumim settlement or Etzion bloc — both of which are almost guaranteed to remain in Israeli control under any political resolution with the Palestinians — could also result in a potentially more muted response by both Palestinians and the rest of the world.
Without knowing which of these — or if anything at all — will happen next month, the Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security service cannot fully plan accordingly and must instead anticipate a broad range of potential immediate reactions to the move by Palestinians, from minor rioting, to widespread terror attacks, all the way up to a full-scale uprising.
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These different scenarios would of course require wildly different responses and deployments by the military — from sending in a handful of additional battalions to contain low-level protests, to wide-scale call-ups of reservists to fully reoccupy major Palestinian cities. This would also potentially divert intelligence and airpower resources from the IDF’s current focus on Iran’s activities in Syria and Lebanon to the West Bank.
Beyond the expected immediate violence, the country’s security forces must also prepare for the larger strategic shifts that may come in response to annexation — or extension of sovereignty, as the Israeli government is wont to call it — for instance in a breakdown of the quarter-century peace treaty with Jordan, which has harshly warned Israel against expanding its sovereignty into the West Bank. Israel’s hard-won relationships with other Arab countries, particularly those in the Persian Gulf, could also be threatened, as well as its ties with some European countries.
Annexation could also push Hezbollah and Hamas to launch attacks on Israel, buoyed by a potential nadir in international support of the Jewish state.
And all this comes at a time when the military and the country are still reeling from the devastating effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/excluded-from-netanyahus-annexation-plans-military-must-somehow-prepare-anyway/